Traders, in general a confident part of the elite class within North Korea, are striving feverishly to enter the patronage of Jang Sung Taek and Kim Jong Eun. However, they are simultaneously concerned as to whether a third generation dynastic succession can succeed or not.
In other words, there is quite a lot of doubt about whether or not Kim Jong Eun has the ability to hold on to the throne and become the next leader of North Korea. The fact that his talents have not been verified in any meaningful way is only amplifying the doubt.
Ri, who runs a trading office in Dalian and was able to observe Kim Jong Il’s visit to the city from a distance, said Kim Jong Il’s image is not that of a distant, charismatic dictator, but instead that of an old man suffering from obvious sickness.
Speaking with relative frankness, Ri explained his feeling after observing the North Korean leader, “Park Nam Ki has been thrown to the dogs for the failure of the currency redenomination, but it can hardly be seen as his fault. This demonstrates the fact that the authorities lack the ability to conduct the economy.”
In addition, he said, “On April 15th, enormous efforts were made to procure gifts for high ranking North Korean officials, and I heard Captain Kim (Kim Jong Eun) took the lead in that process. They purchased high quality liquor and even vehicles to curry the favor of officials, but I am unsure who will actually be loyal to such a young Captain Kim.”
He went on, “On April 15th, the authorities put on eye-opening fireworks for the citizens of Pyongyang, but it was useless. Respect for Captain Kim will not automatically build just because they let off fireworks.”
Kang, currently residing in Beijing, concurs with Ri. In his assessment, “Captain Kim has the desire to seize control of the National Security Agency and People’s Safety Ministry, and thereby to control possible opposition forces. However, his ability to deal with difficulties or crises has not yet been verified.”
Also, he added, “Since Captain Kim is quite young, he lacks experience. How many things could he have learned in Switzerland when he was a kid?”
Kang added, “Among traders in China, there is the concern that if the succession fails, North Korea will face chaos and might be absorbed into China or South Korea. North Korean internal organs say that the current atmosphere does not come close to that of the past, when the General (Kim Jong Il) was succeeding his father.”
“In some agencies, they are even concerned about the possibility of a revolution by powerful military elements. General Kim and Captain Kim are excessively empowering the military, and the General Bureau of Reconnaissance is dominant within the military as well.”
He commented, “The policy of excessively emphasizing the military could come back to haunt them in the future. Currently, the military authorities have sworn loyalty to Captain Kim due to Kim Jong Il, but that could change at any time.”
Kang also recounted the words of his daughter, who is a university student in Pyongyang, saying, “Some of the younger generation in Pyongyang suggest that either moderate military authorities or Jang Sung Taek, who has a rich experience in administration, should seize power.”
