With the Korean Peninsula seemingly incapable of turning smoothly toward dialogue as some had hoped, the outlook for the impending U.S.-China summit is attracting a great deal of attention.
The summit, which starts at the Sunnylands estate in California this Friday, will be the first between presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping since the latter of the two men came to power last year. It also marks the first opportunity for top-level bilateral discussion of North Korea policy since six months of tension enveloped Korean Peninsula affairs.
The bilateral agenda pertaining to the “Korea question” is sure to incorporate issues of computer hacking, missile launches and the nuclear question. All have stood out on the bilateral landscape for some time. President Obama is also set to unofficially raise the question of nine young defectors who were deported from Laos last Monday across Chinese territory, although China maintains that, since the group had appropriate travel documents, the issue is one for the Laotian and North Korean authorities.
Meanwhile, the two leaders are also sure to discuss ways to overcome hindrances that are holding back the move toward dialogue on the Korean Peninsula. However, this is not going to be easy.
At the time of the Obama-Hu summit in Washinton, DC during January 2011, the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island the previous November had incited an equally tense Korean Peninsula situation, with South Korea determined to establish threat deterrence so as to forestall further attacks. However, concerned by North Korea’s growing isolation, then-President Hu simply emphasized the need for dialogue, and placed weight on the possible benefits of a return to the Six-Party Talks.
Noting that China and the United States ought to be promoting peace and security on the Korean Peninsula through denuclearization, Hu stated, “We will work to strengthen cooperation and collaboration with other parties in order to accomplish the lasting peace and security of Northeast Asia.”
Many months of diplomatic movement later, North Korea and the United States signed the Leap Day Agreement on February 29th, 2012, just two months after the death of Kim Jong Il.
However, it will not be easy to bring about a similar result this time, not least since North Korea failed to act in good faith in 2012. Both the United States and South Korea currently emphasize the need for denuclearization actions from North Korea, rather than words, repeating time and time again that “talks for their own sake” are no longer acceptable.
There is also the variable of President Park Geun Hye’s own late June summit with President Xi to consider, along with the suggestion that China might soon allow Kim Jong Eun to visit officially for the first time. It is believed that the Chinese government had been rebuffing all attempts by the North Korean leadership to seek an audience in Beijing; however, the recent visit of “special envoy” Choi Ryong Hae may have changed that.
According to one diplomatic expert who spoke with Daily NK on condition of anonymity today, “In the current conditions we believe it to be all-but impossible to completely dismantle the North Korean nuclear capacity, but we cannot rule out the possibility of some kind of deal eventually being reached.”
