North Korea’s conciliatory approach during discussions on the future of the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) is in sharp contrast to its decision to abruptly postpone this week’s round of separated family reunions, four days before they were to be held at Mt. Geumgang. What is North Korea seeking from the sudden volte face?
Some have pointed the finger at Mt. Geumgang tourism, wherein the North wishes to drive the reopening of the foreign-currency earner that has been shuttered since 2008. If so, the regime is taking a greedy, anti-humanitarian stance in order to steer negotiations in its favor down the road.
Others, however, believe the Mt. Geumgang issue is actually secondary to the overarching issue of North-South relations as whole, and say that North Korea’s change with regards to the family reunions was a politically nuanced attack on South Korea’s general policy toward the North.
For the arch-realist North Korean side, ceding the high ground over the KIC and family reunions had threatened to lead to future weakness in bilateral relations.
In other words, had things continued in the agreed manner over the last two weeks, the North could have predicted growing public support in the South for Park Geun Hye’s North Korea policy platform, “Korean Peninsula trust-building.” This in turn could have muted factional tension within South Korea, something that would then limit North Korea’s potential leverage inside the South.
North Korea may have felt it had little more to gain were public opinion to have been allowed to lean toward Park’s “trust-building” policy. The regime needed to ratchet tensions once again in the hope that the South Korean consensus would suffer as a result.
Indeed, North Korea’s Rodong Sinumn has strongly criticized South Korea’s policy approach in the days following the postponement of the reunions, going as far as to claim that the trust-building policy acted as “the fundamental cause of the relationship breakdown between North and South.”
How should the South Korean government respond to these latest developments? Domestic experts interviewed by Daily NK suggest that the government should continue to abide by its principles. Rather than waiting for a response from North Korea, the South would be best advised to inspire public sentiment both domestically and abroad against the inhumanity of rejecting the family reunions issue. The South, they say, must also continue to demand that North Korea come to the negotiating table.
▲ Cho Bong Hyun, Senior Researcher at IBK Economic Research Institute
We can view the postponement of the separated family reunions as North Korea “putting on the brakes,” as they are dissatisfied that talks to facilitate the resumption of the Mt. Geumgang tours were delayed. They also feel like South Korea has dragged them around during negotiations. The delay may also have been a move to nullify the dissatisfaction of the military with regards to the regime’s conciliatory approach.
Although relations may be strained, this hardline policy will not last forever, as Kim Jong Eun has recently been focusing on economic issues. China cannot be ignored either, and China wants peace on the peninsula.
South Korea should push for the reunions to go ahead, while at the same time telling China that North Korea is jeopardizing security on the peninsula. The South must indirectly pressure the North by whipping up international opinion.
▲ Expert A (a national policy institute researcher who requested anonymity)
We can view North Korea’s actions as an attack on South Korea’s “trust-building process.” While closing the door to further negotiation with the South, this tactic tugs the current situation in the direction of the Six-Party Talks; a move that China has been advocating for.
The South Korean government must not waver in the face of this kind of strategy; they must make proper use of demands for dialogue, and apply pressure by pointing out the inhumane behavior of delaying the family reunions.
▲ Song Dae Sung, President of the Sejong Institute
This political offense arose as soon as expectations were not met following the decision to hold the family reunions, which were agreed upon with the North Korean goal of procuring foreign currency via the resumption of Mt. Geumgang tourism.
South Korea has to clearly explain to the people the true nature of the North Korean regime, and focus on denuclearization. They must also continually demand that North Korea participate in bilateral talks.
North Korea built up an RO (Revolution Organization) in the South for more than a decade. When this fact was made known, they claimed they had nothing to do with it. Yet they watched events unfold, and then decided to respond. Here, North Korea has showed its true colors [..] North decided it could not continue with the family reunions and put an abrupt stop to them.
