Though yesterday’s inter-Korean agreement on separated family reunions was a positive step forward, experts warn that we cannot be certain that Pyongyang won’t cancel them in protest at upcoming U.S-ROK joint military drills.
The North has long opposed the annual spring exercises, believing them to be provocative and aimed at rehearsing for invasion across the 38th parallel.
Among reasons for optimism are the fact that the North expressed regret during yesterday’s meeting that last autumn’s agreement on reunions was not implemented in full. The South declared that this should not recur for a second time, and the North agreed. Both sides further agreed that humanitarian talks should continue, including on the whereabouts of known South Korean kidnap victims.
Furthermore, no special mention was made of tourism at the Mt. Geumgang resort in North Korean Gangwon Province, an issue that the North has explicitly connect to “normalizing” family reunions in the past.
North Korea’s relatively congenial position throughout yesterday’s negotiations may show their desire to show strategically beneficial “sincerity” in terms of improving inter-Korean relations. As such, their purported sincerity will be thrown back into doubt worldwide should they maneuver to postpone the reunions for a second time.
Experts agree that the North is acting with strategic, rather than humanitarian, intent, and believe the latest move is part of a plan to take the upper hand in inter-Korean relations.
Kim Jin Moo of the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses told Daily NK, “The North seems to be aiming to strengthen their bargaining power in future working-level talks on restarting tourism, having lain the groundwork for an agreement. The tours bring them considerable profit.”
“The North will make various attempts at fostering a scenario where the South can only agree to their demands,” he went on, before adding, “(If the dates for the separated families reunion and U.S.-ROK military drills were to overlap), North Korea’s week-long silence prior to the working-level talks would have been preparation to weaken the ‘Key Resolve’ drill. North Korea may have decided to pursue an atmosphere of inter-Korean reconciliation in a bid to lessen the number of military personnel participating in the drill, and to diminish the ROK-US alliance”.
Cho Bong Hyun of IBK Economic Research Institute asserted, “Through releasing tension in the North-South relationship by agreeing to the separated families reunions, North Korea has made apparent their desire to acquire economic gains. They may also be building the justification to place the blame on the South should inter-Korean relations deteriorate going forward.”
Moreover, “From the perspective of Kim Jong Eun, it is vital to improve his image abroad in 2014 by developing the economy. He sees improving North-South relations as a stepping stone toward improved relations with China and the United States.”
