[imText1]Although 20 days have passed since the missile launch, Kim Jong Il has not made any public appearances or statements. Prior to the launch on July 5th, Kim Jong Il had spent some time visiting military sites.
Rodong-Shinmun published reports stating that Kim Jong Il viewed a Folk Dance Performance on the 3rd at Russia’s Moiseff National Academy, and appeared at the Daesung Tire Factory construction site on the 4th. Since then, Kim Jong Il has made no further public appearances.
On July 10th, the North Korea-China Friendship Alliance celebrated its 45th Anniversary.
While there were rumors that Kim Jong Il sent his congratulations to Chinese Premier, Wen Jiabao and Committee member, Wu Bangguo, there were no broadcasts made on North Korean news.
Moreover, no news was publicized regarding the commemoration of the 12th Anniversary of Kim Il Sung’s death at Gumsusan Memorial Palace on July 8th. Experts analyze that there could be no reason for Kim Jong Il not to commemorate his father’s death other than illness.
Additionally, while China’s President, Hu Jintao, met the Vice-chairman of the Supreme People’s Assembly, Yang Hyung Sub, in celebration of the 45th Anniversary of the North Korea-China Friendship Alliance, it was a rare occurance that Kim Jong Il did not also meet the Deputy Premier, Hui Liangyu.
Hypotheses regarding Kim Jong Il’s “Long Seclusion”
“1 month of Hiding” prior to the launch of the Daepodong 1. This time, it has been 20 days of seclusion since the launch
First “Rumors of an illness”.
A North Korean source said “In the past, Kim Jong Il received treatment for heart disease. Since he did not attend the Gumsusan Memorial Palace, there is a possibility that he is receiving treatment again.”
A second observation notes the transitions made following the missile launch. After the U.S. declared war on Iraq in 2003, Kim Jong Il did not emerge for 48 days. It is customary for Kim Jong Il to conceal himself whenever an important event occurs. It seems that Kim Jong Il is attempting to elevate the world’s curiosity having caught their attention with the missile launch.
Thirdly, it is argued that as a result of the “Failed” Daepodong 2, other countermeasures are being contemplated. Though it is a possibility that the Daepodong 2 was a “intended failure” there is still a possibility that it was an actual unintended event.
Compared to the launch of Daepodong 1 in 1998, the situation this time is different. Four days after the Daepodong 1 launch in 1998, North Korean propaganda enthusiasts publicized the ‘Kwangmyungsung 1’ as a success. In addition, Kim Jong Il quickly convened the 1st meeting of the 10th Supreme People’s Assembly (Sept. 5th) and officially implemented the system. Further, he participated in the celebration of the 50th anniversary of the establishment of government and partook in active engagements.
One month prior to the most recent missile launch, Kim Jong Il did not appear in public but focused on completing other appointments. It seems that this time he appeared in public numerous times prior to the launch then retreated after the launch. As a result, there is reason to believe that this behavior is an attempt to conceal the discouragement of Kim Jong Il to the missile launch failure.
U.S. and Japanese pressure… Chances are, threats are being felt
Fourth, there is a possibility that the Security Council’s resolution came as a great shock. It is assumed that Kim Jong Il is in a state of great psychological distress, especially since his “trusted” friends China and Russia agreed to the resolution.
Fifth, analysis suggests that the international community’s firm approach has weakened his resolve and that Kim Jong Il now feels threatened. As a result, Kim Jong Il is restricting his activities.
Shortly after the missile launch, references were made to “North Korea’s aggravation”. President Bush revealed that “Other options, in addition to foreign resolutions, are being considered”, at which Kim Jong Il now feels threatened and has thus currently taken to confinement.
Kim Jong Il’s withdrawal has already passed a few stages. During these times, rumors of treatment spread and activities resumed. Moreover, by withdrawing from the world after the missile launch, it is possible he thinks he will gain the attention of the international community. Kim Jong-Il’s actions are always calculated.
