[imText1]Over the last year or so, details have emerged of Kim Jong Il’s deteriorating health, preparations for an uncertain third-generation dynastic succession and increasingly unstable internal and external conditions for the North Korean regime, so experts agree that preparations for a crisis situation should be made quickly and put under constant review.
Professor Yoo Ho Yul of the Korea University College of Administration, who was participating in a seminar entitled “The best countermeasures in cases of crisis in North Korea,” jointly sponsored by the 21st Century National Development Institute and Korea University on the 22nd, concurs, “A ‘crisis situation’ in North Korea means several different scenarios, including a situation in which there is a sudden change to Kim Jong Il’s health, such that he is no longer able to govern.”
Professor Yoo emphasized, “When a crisis situation is reached, we must head in a direction which unifies the divided Fatherland, including stabilization and aid to North Korea. We are developing our willpower and skills in order to achieve this.”
He went on, “The Berlin Wall suddenly collapsed on November 9th, 1998, and within one year a historic unification of Germany took place. If a crisis were to erupt on the Korean peninsula, then Germany’s case should serve as the most useful precedent.”
Furthermore, he added, “The priorities of surrounding countries are peace in Northeast Asia and the safety of each country individually. It is important to persuade these countries to view unification between North and South Korea positively.”
In particular, Professor Yoo noted a recent development, “China has changed its policy towards North Korea. In the past, they regarded the division of the Korean peninsula as being in their national interest, but now they do not oppose peaceful unification.”
He also emphasized, “The thing which ought to be of the utmost priority if a crisis erupts on the Korean peninsula is to declare U.S.-ROK relations the core of the subsequent reunification process. When the U.S.-ROK alliance is more clearly defined, unnecessary friction and tension can be prevented in advance of any potential crisis.”
Baek Seung Joo, a Security Strategic Research Center Chief at the Korea Institute for National Defense Analyses, spoke on the subject of North Korea’s weapons stocks, saying, “The most important thing in regulating North Korean WMDs is to understand the reality of the country’s possessions. Currently, North Korea has eight to nine nuclear weapons, and has significantly improved the range of its ballistic missiles through the recent launch of the Kwangmyungsung-2.”
He stressed, “The nation which really needs to step up to resolve the issue of WMDs is South Korea. We must not forget the fact that South Korea would be the number one victim.”
“Also,” he added, “China could be more sensitive than the U.S. If something goes wrong with North Korea’s WMDs, then the Northeast Asian region, including China, could be faced with a significant threat.”
In particular, he maintained, “Were the WMD issue to be resolved under a UN agreement, then friction would be reduced. Further, intelligence-gathering organizations such as the Ministry of National Defense, the National Intelligence Service (NIS), the Ministry of Unification and the Ministry of Science and Technology should be strengthened.”
Finally, Yu Dong Yeol, a senior researcher at the Security Countermeasure Office of the South Korean Police Force’s Public Security Research Institute, spoke about tactics for South Korean intervention, “In a case where a situation requiring South Korean intervention develops, then it will be extremely critical to maintain order in the North Korean region so that complete reunification can be achieved.”
Yu commented that in order to maintain order in the region, the following elements need to be reviewed: ▲ registration of North Korea’s public order organizations (police, registration of manpower and equipment) ▲ budgetary support and the procurement of public order equipment, as well as swift control of destabilizing elements and the operation of a management unit.
He emphasized, “Something like a countermeasures manual should be prepared, covering every kind of crisis.”
