It is quite likely that, regardless of how successful the succession from Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong Eun (formerly Woon) turns out to be, Jong Eun will end up causing a power struggle due to his weak hold on power and expansion of power elites’ political influence, a leading defense analyst believes.
Kim Jin Moo, a researcher with the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), believes that even if Kim Jong Il’s third son is able to spearhead a third generation of the Kim family ruling dynasty after his father’s death, the political influence of the elite will inevitably increase in such a situation, and that could easily lead to a power struggle.
Kim, who was giving a lecture at an event, “How to assess North Korea’s political fluctuations,” held at the Korean War museum in Seoul by the Institute of North Korea Studies yesterday, asserted, “Kim Jong Il’s ruling style of overseeing the minutiae of the power elite has only been possible due to his complete command over the affairs of state, but Jong Eun, who was born in 1984, has not secured his power base yet.”
Kim explained that he believes Kim Jong Eun will be officially unveiled as the successor in 2012, and power will thereafter be incrementally transferred to him. At the same time, he envisions a system of ‘collective rule’ coming into effect, but that, “regardless of Kim Jong Il’s death occurring before or after 2012, the power elite will be hard to control.”
“If Chairman Kim were to die before 2012, then Kim Jong Eun’s succession to power would not be affected, but it would be impossible for him to make independent decisions regarding the economic crisis, nuclear issues or inter-Korean relations,” Kim suggested.
According to Kim’s explanation, it is therefore highly likely that there will be a transitional “collective” regime in which the core party, military and administrative figures—with a focus on the National Defense Commission—will all be participants. During this process, a lot of competing factional voices will be trying to make themselves heard, while governance will be weaker than it currently is, which may result in a power struggle.
Furthermore, even if Chairman Kim died as late as 2015, then Kim Jong Eun, who would be in his early 30s by that time, would still lack adequate experience to independently run the key affairs of state. Therefore, Kim forecasted, “The participation of key elite figures such as Jang Sung Taek is inevitable, and one cannot rule out the possibility of their power increasing.”
He emphasized, “Even if Jong Eun shows political capability, the North Korean regime will necessarily become a crisis management one, which will be limited and unique in nature. The increase in the political influence of the power elite will result in a power struggle and political flux.”
