Experts say that North Korea is not likely to enter into the third phase of nuclear denuclearization before President Bush’s term in office expires.
Cha Doo Hyun, senior research fellow of the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said at a 4th July forum organized by Lawmaker Yoon Sang Hyun of the Grand National Party that “Given the current situation, it seems unlikely that North Korea would be able to move into the third phase of the denuclearization process within President Bush’s term.”
Cha said, “The final phase of denuclearization is much more difficult and complicated than that of disablement and declaration. Moreover, it is difficult to provide corresponding rewards for North Korea in a short period of time, for example providing economic assistance, supporting North Korea’s entry into international financial institutions, normalizing relations with the U.S, and concluding a peace treaty with South Korea.”
Cha said, “Instead of completely dismantling North Korea’s nuclear programs, the U.S. might have decided to deal with North Korea’s nuclear problems in a manageable way by continuing to negotiate with them. After all, in a situation where it is impossible to bring about a change in the North Korean regime over a short period of time, the U.S. might have decided to stop this nuclear problem from getting worse until things improve.”
“Denuclearization efforts must include an effort to prevent North Korea from pushing additional nuclear proliferation activities. However, based on its assessment of information on North Korea’s nuclear tests, the U.S. might have taken into consideration that it is not necessary to immediately complete the denuclearization of North Korea within a short period of time,” said Cha.
Cha said, “North Korea, for its part, finds it difficult to continue the nuclear crisis it has created. So, it has adopted a strategy of using the ongoing dialogue phase to improve its relations with the U.S.” Cha continued, “North Korea has already used brinkmanship tactics several times. It must have now realized that it cannot act as recklessly as it used to.”
Cha added, “Considering its relations with traditional allies such as China and Russia, North Korea finds it difficult to maintain an unyielding attitude. It must be calculating that it can extend the current negotiation phase to at least four to five years without completely giving up its goal of becoming a nuclear state.”
Regarding North Korea’s strategy towards South Korea, Cha said, “If the next U.S. government adopts a placatory policy towards North Korea, North Korea might seek once again a containment policy regarding South Korea while promoting dialogue with the U.S.” Cha added, “North Korea must be thinking that it should keep South Korea as a dependent variable by directly dealing with the U.S. so that it can minimize the impact of the implementation of inter-Korean exchange and cooperation programs on North Korean society.”
