There is a limit to Director of the Ministry of Administration of the Chosun (North Korea) Workers’ Party Jang Sung Taek’s domination over the North Korean military, although he is on the inside track to take power.
Cheong Seong Chang, a North-South relations researcher at the Sejong Institute, asserted so in his report, “Predictions for North Korean power structure change in the post-Kim Jong Il era.”
Cheong pointed out that, “Jang Sung Taek has a good reputation with the authorities and administrative power over the National Security Agency (NSA) and the People’s Safety Agency (PSA), so he is in a better position to grasp power in an emergency. However, he does not lead the military.”
He stated in the report that, “The First Vice-Directors of the Guidance Department Lee Jeh Gang and Lee Yong Cheol who are in charge of the Party apparatus and the military could face an expulsion crisis if Jang Sung Taek takes power. This is because they were significant characters in the battle to suspend Jang, while siding with Ko Young Hee in the past.”
Therefore, he predicts that, “They may keep their current rights by having Jong Choel or Jong Woon, the second and third sons of Kim Jong Il, stand as the successor. However, if one of them becomes the next leader, he cannot help but control the state by significantly relying on elder statesmen.”
“For now, there is no one who holds real power over the Party, the military and the government, so whoever gets the power after Kim Jong Il’s death can’t hope to have concrete influence as Kim Jong Il currently does,” he said.
He predicted that, “It is hard to imagine that the North will change its system into a collective leadership system just like the Chinese have. Therefore, in the post-Kim Jong Il era, the system may be relaxed a bit more than the current system, nevertheless concentrating power in the Party and the country in an individual dictatorship.”
The National Defense Commission and other governmental organizations cannot substitute for the Secretariat of the Central Committee of the Party, so in the post-Kim Jong Il era, there may be no choice but for the Party to be the core of power, according to his report.
He released his view regarding possible emergency situations after Kim’s death saying that, “The North Korean authorities are incapable of economic development, but have at least the know-how to survive. We should not underestimate the durability of the North Korean system, because the North Korean regime concentrates on its military power, ideological unity, and systematic control instead of solving economic problems, which are the fourth priority.”
Regarding the view that the military authorities are increasing their power, he explained the connection between the Party and the military structure. “The General Political Bureau of the Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces, a Party apparatus within the military, leads the military and the Guidance Department of the Central Committee of the Party dominates the implementation of personnel management of military high officials. Therefore, it is systematically impossible for the military to take power over the country while leaving the Party behind.”
