Interest regarding North Korea’s urgent state of affairs has gradually been rising.
North Korea has been collapsing as a whole since the 90s’ starvation. Further, the post-Kim Jung Il system has not been established at all. No, it is more accurate to say it is difficult to establish the system.
When Kim Il Sung was alive, Kim Jung Il finished his preparations for succession, but the present Kim Jung Il system has not made any such preparations. Additionally, Kim Jung Il fears a leakage of power, so he has prevented even a discussion of a succeeding system.
In the middle of 1990s after the starvation, in the recent 10 years, corruption has been spreading in the North Korean military and bureaucratic society and the civilians’ estrangement from the North Korean government has been deepening. As a result, at the time of Kim Jung Il’s death, the possibility of North Korea falling into sudden confusion is high.
North Korea’s collapse will bring about a confusion in the Northeast Asian order
If an accident occurs to Kim Jung Il, what kind of a situation will unfold inside North Korea?
What the surrounding countries fear the most is that North Korea will fall into serious domestic confusion and a tragedy of the state and that a massive defector situation will take place after Kim Jung Il’s accident.
”Because Kim Jong Il’s successor system has not be established, an internal war between military bigwigs will arise. In the midst of the disorder, civilians’ rage which has been accumulating towards leaders will erupt, leading to all kinds of civil terror in each region. Border regulation capacity will become paralyzed and mass defection including border inspector units will be attempted at the Aprok and Tumen River areas. Citizens on the East Asian Sea side will rush into a moving period in order to ensure ships to defect to Japan and South Korea. Installments of soldiers at the demilitarized zone will throw explosives at the DMZ, so that they can get rid of landmines and escape the internal battles to go to South Korea. All regions of North Korea will fall into anarchy due to inner battles, disorder, terror, and retaliation.”
Among the anticipated scenarios, what is stated above is the worst case scenario. We must be prepared for even a 1% chance of national white-out. Even if the possibility of that is not high, a plan for the worst scenario must always be prepared. Also, all kinds of arrangements have to be made to carry out such a plan at any time.
North Korea’s urgent situation will not just influence South Korea. North Korea’s mass defection is the biggest threat and unrest to China, first of all. It can be a serious threat to Japan as well. The U.S. cannot just stand by because North Korea’s state of affairs brings a serious reorganization to the Northeast Asian order.
Even if the U.S.-South Korea cooperative relations becomes dissolved, the stationed U.S. Armed Forces will continue to exist as allies in Korea, so China can only be apprehensive of the enlargement of U.S.’ influence on the entire peninsula. Similarly, South Korea and the U.S. have the mindset that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army may occupy North Korea or will incite a kindred spirit within the North Korean military and make the North into a satellite state.
South Korea and China also suspects that Japan might try to use national security as an excuse to rationalize the line of military expansionism when faced with the North Korean fallout. Thus, North Korea’s fallout can only be accompanied by serious reorganization of the Northeast Asian order.
