There have been heavy debates after a South Korean government official commented on the sanctions over North Korea as countermeasures against the attack of the Cheonan and pressure to see regime changes of North Korea.
Since the comment was released after several communications between the U.S. and South Korea; the “2+2” Foreign and Defense Ministers Meeting, meetings during the period of the G-20 Summit, and the UN Security Council of South Korea and the U.S. regarding the Cheonan incident, the debates are more controversial.
South Korean and U.S. officials believe that the sinking of the Cheonan was a turning point in terms of direction of both countries’ policies towards North Korea. Immediately after the “2+2” meeting, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that the measures are designed to target the North Korean leadership and their assets. Clinton’s comment implies that the sanction aims to block Kim Jong Il’s funds, an Achilles’ heel for the leader that could well lead to fundamental changes in the country.
However, experts on North Korea believe that the financial sanction will only damage the North’s regime. Head of the Center for South-North Korean Cooperation Studies of the Korea Institute for National Unification, Choi Jin Wook, reported that, “Since the Cheonan incident, South Korea and the U.S. have been skeptic of any inter-Korean economic cooperation and Six-Party Talks. The US and South Korea are trying to make North Korea change its system due to unendurable sanction pains.”
However, Choi added that, “It is utterly impossible that both countries will fully reach the idea of regime changes.”
An anonymous researcher said, “When I met with South Korean administration officials after the Cheonan incident, I figured out that their policies on North Korea were focusing on a regime change. But, the US administration’s policies have not reached the same point.”
However, he added that, “It depends on North Korean attitude. If North Korea does not show its sincerity to the international community and does not change its attitude, the U.S. may think of North Korea’s regime change.”
Regardless of this debate and the directions of both countries’ policies, it is probable that financial sanctions will direct a decisive blow to the North Korean regime. The target and range of such damage will be entirely different from past actions, such as freezing the Banco Delta Asia accounts in September of 2005.
There is still a piece to solve in the puzzle of North Korea: the co-operation of China. Experts say that, “If China should take place in the U.S’ sanction over North Korea, their aiding and abetting of the North’s illegal activities would be unveiled.” They pointed out that, “The key is how the U.S. will persuade China to help.”
