Sanctions may usher in wave of civil unrest in NK

North Korea will start to feel the pinch
from the strongest set of sanctions yet to be unleashed by the UN Security
Council to cut off funds that prop up the Kim Jong Un leadership. With the
country’s economy having become almost 40 percent dependent on outside trade, and by association the outside world, these external changes may have a broad-reaching impact across all sectors of North Korean society.

Especially by cutting off some of Kim Jong
Un’s key channels for his leadership funds, such as trade with China and other foreign
currency earning operations, some say it is feasible for these measures to deal a
direct blow to the leader himself. Facing the prospect of a shortage in funds
and a lack of means to boost his “legacy projects,’” Pyongyang fired a series of
short-range projectiles from its new multiple rocket launch system into the
East Sea less than a day after the UN resolution had passed, reflecting its
concerns.  
 

Of the multiple sanctions, one of the
measures most likely to hit Pyongyang hardest is the ban on mineral exports
by the North. Coal, which is one of its largest export items, has been banned
from export, supply, and transfers unless for humanitarian reasons. Not only
that, gold, vanadium ore, titanium ore, and rare earth minerals cannot be
exported either.
 

Until now, foreign cash raked in from
mineral exports had been sent to the Workers’ Party Office 39 through the
military to be used as Kim Jong Un’s leadership funds. The ban on mineral
exports has in effect removed a robust link running across the Party, military, and
government, which experts predict may lead to a disruption in unity among
cadres of all affiliations.
 

The restrictions on the sales and supply of
aviation fuel, including rocket fuel, are also certain to put pressure on the North. The
move mostly seals off the North’s access to air travel and challenges its
ability run fighter jets, impeding training for its air force. This is
projected to put a damper on morale within the military and also obstruct its
strategic capabilities.

Moreover, when considering things from the
North’s point of view, it stands to reason that limits on shipping can and will
not be taken lightly. Just as the Philippines impounded the North’s vessel Jin
Teng in accordance with the new sanctions, if the international community
starts to clamp down on its marine operations, Pyongyang will find it hard to
continue its trade of arms by way of sea.
 

Still another area expected to stumble over
the fresh sanctions is the North’s textile industry, which had been expanding
rapidly over the past few years. With punitive measures high on the agenda
within the international community, no country will be interested in increasing
textile imports from the North, and even if current levels hold, the funds
secured from the industry will fall far short of being sufficient for
leadership funds.
 

In terms of the North dispatching its
workers overseas–another cash cow for the leadership–individual countries may
devise unilateral sanctions. What appears to be key is continually shedding
light on their working conditions to prevent funds from being channeled back to
the Party and winning over support from China and Russia, where many of their workers
are being sent.
 

That the average North Korean will be hit by these economic shifts is inexorable. With people relying solely on China to
secure essential goods, a cutback on trade will challenge the supply of these
daily goods.
 

At the core of this all, of course, is
China. The reason why past sanctions have had no real effect on changing
Pyongyang’s attitude boils down to the North’s belief that Beijing will not
give up trade with its intractable ally. For this reason, a strategy to persuade China to
continually uphold these stronger measures against Pyongyang must be drawn up
and enforced.
 

“Because the UN sanctions are themselves
strong, if China simply implements what’s there, it will have an impact on
pressuring the North,” Jeung Young Tae, senior researcher from Korea Institute
for National Unification [KINU] told Daily NK. “With China pledging to faithfully uphold the resolution, I think we should believe Beijing will
implement these measures in earnest.”
 

Jeung added, the overall impact this will
have on the North will not simply depend on China but on how long these
measures are upheld. “Kim Jong Un will be able to get by with the funds that he
has saved up so far. So in order for the sanctions to really have an effect, we
need to encourage China and the rest of the international community to
proactively implement these measures,” he said.
 

Another North Korea watcher explained,
“These days, the subject of admiration and respect in the North is not the top
leader but the money people secure from the markets to sustain their
livelihoods.” Given this, once the sanctions start to influence the daily lives
of North Koreans, it could turn people’s sentiments against Kim Jong Un and
potentially lead to groups of unrest in society, the expert added.
 

“This is why we should work to let these
people know that the international sanctions come from Kim Jong Un’s ambitions
for nuclear and missile development in order to drive a wedge between the
leadership and the general public,” the expert concluded.