“China does not have any motive for, interest in or desire to annex North Korea,” NKnet researcher Kim Young Hwan has written in a new piece for quarterly Zeitgeist. “It is a misunderstanding on the part of the South Korean people to say that China will try to subordinate North Korea and annex the country in the long run.”
In “The Role of China and Korean Peninsula”, released in the Zeitgeist spring issue, Kim explains, “For the sake of political and economic independence and balanced development, it is not desirable for North Korea to economically depend too much on another country, China,” and adds that therefore, “It is hard to imagine it as an inevitable path going forward.”
He points out, “In the past when South Korea’s economic reliance on the U.S. and Japan was huge, it had an influence on policy, diplomacy and security,” but as the South Korean economy developed, that situation changed. Similarly, he claims that after the Kim Jong Il regime, “Through reform and opening the North economy will develop and the economic foundations and nature will be reinforced, so this problem will be gradually overcome.”
Kim believes that the reasons why the annexation of North Korea is not in the Chinese interest are: the need for great expense to construct social infrastructure and establish the economic foundations; the additional cost of overcoming cultural and social conflicts between the two nations; the resultant invalidity of an ally and buffer state; the effect on South Korean public opinion; the risk of diminishing China’s position, reputation, and role in the world; and the loss of moral weight regarding Taiwan.
It would be better to view Chinese investment, technological support, personnel exchanges and others in a positive light, Kim believes, since “from a positive view, these can contribute to North Korea’s mid- or long-term prosperity.”
“If the North Korean regime were to collapse, it would be better to get China to contribute to the reconstruction of North Korea and prevent a chaotic situation as far as possible. During the process of the reconstruction of North Korea, smooth cooperation between South Korea and China could lead to normal reconstruction of the North and better relations between China and South Korea.”
