The North Korean regime publicly supported the election of Donald Trump as the US President. On October 6, “Chosun Today,” one of North Korea’s external propaganda mouthpieces, criticized Hillary Clinton as “stupid,” while labeling Trump a “wise politician.” Meanwhile, U.S.-based Voice of America reported that North Korean officials expressed their preference for Trump to a visiting Japanese journalist in late September, saying, “The Republican Party is better than the Democratic Party for dialogue.”
Hillary Clinton was expected to continue the Obama administration’s policy of “strategic patience” while increasing pressure on North Korea. Therefore, the election of Trump has been welcomed as a new opportunity for the regime. Trump has referred to Kim Jong Un as a “maniac” but has suggested the possibility of dialogue with him.
Possibility of U.S.-North Korea dialogue
Trump’s comments during the presidential race have been inconsistent, rendering it difficult to predict the new administration’s approach toward North Korea. However, considering Trump’s outspoken nature and the desire of the Republican Party to change existing Democratic Party policies, the possibility of U.S.-North Korea dialogue cannot be ruled out.
For example, the suspension of the joint military exercises between the US and South Korea could be floated in exchange for a peace treaty on the Korean peninsula, together with the suspension of the nuclear tests and missile launches, and eventual North Korean denuclearization. It is expected that such matters will be discussed in cooperation with South Korea, but the possibility remains that Trump may opt for an unconventional approach that creates difficulties for the South Korean government. South Korea therefore has reasonable cause for concern regarding the strength of the U.S.-ROK alliance if the US is seen to push forwards with direct negotiations with Pyongyang while neglecting Seoul.
The stakes are higher if negotiation fails
An inevitable obstacle to US-DPRK negotiations will be the persistent stance of North Korea on the denuclearization issue no matter what the Trump administration may offer. During the phase of negotiations after the first nuclear test in 2006, North Korea agreed to shut down its Yongbyon nuclear facility and partially disable it, but turned back on its agreement to allow scientific verification of the status of its nuclear development at the last minute .
Even if negotiations proceed relatively well, it is highly unlikely that North Korea will give up its pursuit of nuclear weapons. The US president is subject to a term of four to eight years, and the kind of policies that North Korea may face after the next election are unclear. The regime is likely cognizant of the abrupt change in policy that occurred following the transition of the Clinton administration to the Bush administration.
The crisis of 1994 may return
If attempts at dialogue between the two countries founder and a confrontational phase reignites, the North is likely to flex its nuclear and missile capabilities to further pressure the United States. The regime often showcases its forces during the negotiation process to enhance its bargaining power, and may threaten the US with Musudan missiles that can reach the island of Guam, together with KN-08 or KN-14 missiles that are considered to be ICBMs.
According to Trump’s ‘US first’ principle, a line will be drawn if the interests of the US are violated.
If provocations escalate, the Korean peninsula may once again fall into crisis. Although North Korea has threatened war on numerous occasions, the 1994 crisis was regarded as the most serious because the US, at the time, considered military options. Bill Clinton, then president, noted in his memoir, My Life (1994), that he “was firmly determined to use every measure at his disposal to prevent North Korea from developing nuclear weapons during the crisis on the Korean Peninsula.”
The 1994 crisis was diffused and entered a negotiation phase partially as a result of former US President Jimmy Carter’s visit to North Korea.
It is critical for South Korea to consolidate its leadership to complement the efforts of the US in pressuring North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons programs. South Korea’s president must be a competent person who is bold and resourceful both domestically and internationally. With the current climate of global instability, South Korea’s leadership must be stabilized as soon as possible.
