Following North Korean leader Kim Jong Eun’s New Year’s address, in which he expressed interest in holding inter-Korean summit talks, expectations have been on the rise about another landmark meeting taking place. Not only has Pyongyang, which is facing international isolation, addressed the need to improve inter-Korean ties, but also the Park Geun Hye administration in the South as it enters its third year has signaled its willingness to improve relations with its prickly neighbor.
If in the next round of inter-Korean talks, which look likely to take place, the two sides are able to find common grounds to rebuild ties, and if Seoul agrees to lift May 24th sanctions imposed on Pyongyang, resulting from the North’s sinking of a South Korean naval corvette in 2010, it greatly increases the possibility of a high-level summit. This could be the kind of “environment and conditions” ripe for talks that Kim Jong Eun mentioned in his address.
As long as Pyongyang continues nuclear drive, summit talks unlikely
However, to get right to my point, as long as Pyongyang sticks to its dual policy of nuclear and economic development, summit talks are unlikely. This is because inter-Korean summit talks, in spite of Pyongyang’s pursuit for nuclear arms, could appear to be a sign of endorsement by Seoul.
Summit talks that were held by former South Korean presidents, Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun, were made possible because Pyongyang was in the process of denuclearization. When the two late leaders Kim Dae Jung and Kim Jong Il met in 2000, the North was upholding its freeze of its nuclear program according to the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework. It had sealed off operations at the Yongbyon nuclear facility and work to dismantle the reactors was in progress, so the Kim Dae Jung administration was able to move forward with improving bilateral relations.
In 2007, when the next South Korean President, Roh Moo Hyun, met with Kim Jong Il, the North was again carrying out measures agreed upon in the Feb. 13th pact, drawn up during the six-party talks. Pyongyang, the previous year, shocked the world by carrying out its first nuclear test in October, but soon returned to the multilateral talks and conceded to the Feb. 13th agreement to shut down its nuclear facilities. A day before the 2007 Inter-Korean Summit October 4th Agreement was announced, Pyongyang accepted a deal in Beijing to disable its nuclear facilities. This backdrop allowed Seoul to pursue a policy of engagement with Pyongyang without the nuclear issue hanging over its head.
Of course, the 1994 Agreed Framework, the Feb. 13th, and Oct. 3rd agreement have all been rendered useless, and there is the question of if Pyongyang will ever commit to its side of the deal even if other agreements are produced. However, what’s important is that Pyongyang needs to at least be in the midst of talks and taking steps towards denuclearization in order for Seoul to have any room to consider holding summits talks to improve inter-Korean ties without the burden of Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions.
Realistic goal for improving inter-Korean ties needed
Leader Kim Jong Eun made it clear in his New Year’s address that he plans to firmly adhere to his dual policy of nuclear and economic development [the Byungjin Line]. He once again emphasized “[the country] will strengthen its independent national defense using nuclear deterrence as its core.” As of now, it does not look like President Park Geun Hye will be able to hold talks with Kim Jong Eun. That is unless Pyongyang expresses its willingness to abandon its nuclear ambitions during the summit meeting. But so long as the North thinks of its nuclear operation as its most important negotiating card with Washington, that is not something that can easily be expected.
In the end, what we can hope for is not some grand political event such as a summit meeting to improve ties with the North. Resolving issues related to the May 24th sanctions can ushering fresh air into South-North relations. It is hard to imagine things will change dramatically between the two unless Pyongyang gives up its nuclear program. However, since prolonging this state of cut-off relations does not benefit the future of the Korean Peninsula, Seoul should lift the May 24th sanctions to open new doors for exchange and cooperation between the two Koreas. In order for the South to do so, the North must express its stance on the Cheonan sinking, so at this point, this will be the most important issue the South and North face.
Last but not least, time is running out for the Park Geun Hye administration. At the end of next month come the joint military drills between Seoul and Washington, known as Key Resolve, which could derail any potential inter-Korean dialogue. This means if Seoul is unable to realize a path of inter-Korean dialogue by then, relations could once again go adrift. The Sony cyberattack issue, which has driven an even stronger wedge between Washington and Pyongyang, could also have an impact on inter-Korean relations. So now is the time for Seoul to take one step at a time toward a more tangible goal centered around improving relations, while bearing in mind how the U.S. may become a variable in the future.
*The views expressed in Guest Columns are not necessarily those of Daily NK.
