Paramnesia, also known as deja vu, is the
experience of perceiving a situation as if it had occurred before. When the
author looks at what is currently happening on the Korean Peninsula, it
seems like all this has taken place before. But when and where did all this
previously take place? The politicians and the pundits right now fail to see
the forest for the trees. The so-called trees are the surprise visit by Hwang
Pyong So, the exchanges of shots over the Northern Limit Line [NLL] and the
Korean Demilitarized Zone [DMZ], Kim Jong Eun’s sudden disappearance and sudden
appearance, the upcoming military talks, and the high-level talks. Everyone is
missing the big picture by obsessing over the smaller episodes.
I honestly find it very difficult to
understand politicians’ view of North Korea, whether it is Kim Moo Sung’s statement that
“provoking the North isn’t a good idea,” or the others who say “those North Korean scum
just can’t be understood” in response to the exchange of shots after Hwang’s
return to North Korea.
How can they have eyes but fail to see what
North Korea is trying to do? This is not the first time that they have pulled a stunt
like this. Since 1998, they have been staging the same play again and again,
only with a different cast each time. Their heads are useless, unless used to hang hats, or used in bowing to voters when they are begging for
votes. The author is really curious as to what is in their heads.
Let’s speak frankly. The North’s current South
Korea strategy is to stage a second June 15th [South-North Joint Declaration
adopted on June 15th, 2000]. As mentioned before, the same plot from 1998 to June
2000 is being played again with different directors, script, and actors.
Kim Jong Il found himself in a hard spot
following Kim Il Sung’s death in 1994 and the collapse of communism in East
Europe. The situation worsened when the economy collapsed and over 3 million
subsequently starved to death from 1994 to 98. But he cleaned up this mess by
closing the country from outside influences and using fear tactics to quell
internal dissent, and launching the Taepodong Missile to threaten outsiders
that “there will be war if you provoke us.”
In particular, he elevated inter-Korean
tensions by developing nuclear weapons, and leveraged this into a round of
international negotiations, from which he got the resources to strengthen the
economy and military, thereby further strengthening his grip on North Korea.
Who helped out the North Korea regime the most at
this time? The answer is the Kim Dae Jung government’s Sunshine Policy. Kim
Jong Il was initially suspicious of the Sunshine Policy in 1998, and wanted to
see whether it was a trap that would instigate North Korea’s internal collapse or set
the stage for a military conflict. He decided to sound out DJ’s “wicked true
motives” by launching the First Battle of Yeonpyeong in June 1999, attempting a
crossing of the Jeju Strait by a ship wearing civil disguises, and announcing
the “West Sea Military Demarcation Line.”
When SK won the first battle in Yeonpyeong,
Kim Jung Il regime launched an enormous amount of criticism and vitriol about
how this would rupture inter-Korean relations and lead to war. This continued
until the DJ government imposed a rule of engagement so ridiculous that it has
never been seen before in the history of warfare. He forbade our military from
attacking preemptively, and so tied up our own hands and feet.
When the inter-Korean Summit began
surfacing in talks, Kim Jong Il asked for many concessions in exchange for his
sanction in allowing the summit to take place. 4.5 million USD in cash, and the
withdrawal of agents along the North Korea-China-Russia border were the price for his
permission. Moreover, by making it a precondition of the summit that the
summit’s preliminary preparations would be held in Beijing, he ensured that
China would act as an intermediary at the Summit, and for this privilege, he
extracted economic aid from China.
Kim Jong Il used the Summit as an opportunity
to begin climbing out of international isolation. Domestically, he made it seem
as if he “summoned” DJ to Pyongyang and boosted his reputation among North Korean citizens.
As the two Korean presidents were riding
together car from the airport to the reception, the North Korean citizens along the road
shouted “Loyalty unto death.” Afterwards, DJ appeared on a KBS show and
commented, “I was confused as to why they would invite a guest and chant that
slogan among themselves.” He had no way of knowing about the North Korean system of
personal devotion to the leader demanded of all citizens. In this way, DJ was
completely outplayed by his counterpart, even though DJ probably thought that
he was outplaying Kim Jong Il.
Inter-Korean relations improved as Kim Jong
Il extracted financial aid from SK. This in turn led to North Korea having better
relations with the international community. From the latter’s perspective, if the North began improving its relations with its number one enemy South Korea, what was there
to stop them, namely the US, Europe, and Japan, from improving their respective
relations with North Korea? China, of course, wholly supported the improvements in
inter-Korean relations because it would lead to stability in the Korean
Peninsula.
Hence, Kim Jong Il leveraged his closer
ties with the DJ government to enhance its diplomatic relations with most
Southeast Asian and European states, with France being a notable exception
since the French could not ignore North Korea’s blatant human rights violations.
This current of events continued until
2001, when the 9-11 attacks and the American discovery of uranium enrichment by
NK in 2002 prohibited the Kim-Kim cooperation. Let’s omit what happened under
the successive governments of Roh Moo Hyun and Lee Myung Bak.
What is Kim Jong Eun’s current situation?
After the death of his father, Kim Jong Eun
is still isolated from the international community, and this has worsened
following the long-distance missile launch and the third nuclear arms
experiment. This is further exacerbated by Xi Jinping’s refusal to meet him, and
Obama’s engagement in the Middle East that is keeping him occupied. This means
that the question of NK currently lies in the hands of South Korea and China.
Like his father, Kim Jong Eun has no other
way to sustain his regime except in strengthening his economy and nuclear arms
capacity. The problem is that the North Korean economy now leans towards
capitalism following the currency reform launched in November 2009. The success
of the 13 economic development zones and the 6 special economic zones rests on
successful market liberalization, which will hopefully attract foreign
investment.
It is certain that Kim Jong Eun is on the
path to market liberalization. However, on the other hand, he cannot give up
his nuclear weapons. Another issue tying up his hands is the human rights issue
which he inherited from his predecessors. These two problems of nuclear weapons
and human rights violations are blocking his path to the international
community.
The NK human rights issue began at the
grassroots level in US, Canada, Europe, Australia, and Japan fifteen years ago,
and now attracts a significant amount of attention from the international
community.
Last September, at the 69th Session of the
UN General Assembly, North Korea’s human rights was the subject of a ministerial
meeting. The US Secretary of State John Kerry urged NK to “shut this evil
system down,” and the SK Foreign Affairs Minister Yun Byung Se stressed the
need for an inter-Korean dialogue on this issue. President Park also spoke to
the General Assembly about the seriousness of the problem, and mentioned the
forceful repatriation of North Korean refugees in China.
A few days later, the fact that the EU
circulated a proposal asking the UN Security council to refer Kim Jong Eun to
the International Criminal Court [ICC] for crimes against humanity gained wide
attention. In contrast, no one gave any notice to the North’s human rights report
that challenged the UN report of systemic human rights abuse in North Korea.
Realistically speaking, persecuting Kim
Jong Eun at the ICC will be difficult. Nonetheless, the proposal itself is an
objective indicator of what the international community really thinks of him.
If the UN chooses to go ahead and refer Kim Jong Eun to the ICC, then he is
instantly put in the same class as Milosevic the “Butcher of the Balkans” in
the world’s eyes.
Russia and China will most likely prevent
any prosecution from actually taking place. Nevertheless, they will not risk
their own national interests by disputing the seriousness of the human rights
situation in North Korea in the face of opposition from US, UK, France, and other
members of the UN Security Council. They will try to evade this as much as
possible.
So to where is this all leading? If Kim
Jong Eun wants to ensure the regime’s survival, he will have to improve
relations with the Park government and extract financial aid in order to boost
the economy and upgrade his nuclear arsenal, just as his father did with the DJ
government. When he manages to do this, then better relations with the US and
China will naturally follow.
In summary, the current situation on the
Korean Peninsula is identical to that of the period from 1998 to 2000. That is
why this is deja vu.
It is probably true that Kim Jong Eun
disappeared from the public view due to an illness. The reports that he had a
surgery, whether on his knee or ankle, and that a German cardiovascular expert
visited North Korea are most likely true as well. And it is also true that he is on
a Kim Il Sung-style political propaganda tour on a cane.
But does his illness sufficiently explain
the rationale behind recent events like the surprise visit and the exchange of
shots? This writer does not think so. These events are merely propaganda tools
to re-establish the image of a strong leader which has recently been
besmirched. Moreover, these events are put on so that North Korea will have a stronger
position in future negotiations.
Kim Jong Il also disappeared from public
view when world opinion was hostile to him, namely during the Iraq War and
after the September 11th attack. He knew that there would be nothing to gain from
any publicity at this time, because he would only be compared with Hussein, and
targeted for more criticism.
Kim Jong Eun’s disappearance, caused by ill
health, became a talking point, and led to negative rumors as to whether he
was seriously ill or that he had fell from power. Hwang’s shock visit to the
Asian Games closing ceremony, made in order to divert these rumors, had the
intended effect of diverting everyone’s attention away from Kim’s
disappearance.
The shock appearance meant that charges at
the ICC disappeared as well as rumors about his disappearance, and the
situation on the Korean Peninsula suddenly changed. Both countries agreed to
hold a second round of negotiations. The pundits began wondering whether this
would lead to real progress at closer ties.
Regardless of whether the two Koreas have
been engaging in secret negotiations or not, the author thinks that the North’s
SK strategy bears the markings of a master strategist. The North has always had
the element of surprise on its side because they are always the first to
unexpectedly turn the tables. The North thinks that the loss of initiative will
mean their “death”; hence, they choose to act unexpectedly in order to retain
the initiative.
After Hwang’s visit, North Korea’s navy purposely
crossed the NLL and provoked South Korea’s navy into responding, and fired rounds at
North Korea-destined balloons launched by human rights groups. Amid this, they now suggest that a second round of high level meetings should be held. North Korea is trying to bully and tame the Park government into adopting a more obliging
and deferential attitude, one which will benefit North Korea in future negotiations.
Time is on their side, since SK only has less than 5 years to do anything,
while NK has no such limits and can wait for a friendlier government if the
current one proves hostile. The naval intrusion was a means of sounding out the
political atmosphere in South Korea, and will use the results to frame their strategy.
[When negotiations that are going well are
interrupted by naval engagements in the western sea, South Korean pundits and
politicians will again say that they can’t understand these NK chumps, and will
remain ignorant to the fact that such actions are meant to favor their
position at the negotiating table. This is why we always lose to them.]
Kim Young Chul, the North’s representative at
the military talks, will begin taming the Park government on October
15th. His role is not really to consult South Korea on certain matters or reach
any important agreements, but to harass and be uncooperative. This phase could
go on longer than anyone expects. It will continue until the Park government
becomes tired of putting up with it and offers concessions to buy the North’s
cooperation. What North Korea is ultimately aiming for is to stage a second June 15th, and this upcoming joint declaration could contain proposals for achieving peace
and a confederation.
Who is going to win the negotiations? We do
not know. The below is a list of the characters who will be essential in the
confrontation.
SK: Park Geun Hye, Kim Kwan Jin, Kim Kyu
Hyun, Yun Byung Se, Ryoo Kihl Jae, Lee Byung Ki, Choi, Yoon Hee, Joo Cheol Ki
NK: Kim Jong Eun, Jo Yon Jun, Hwang Pyong So, Kim Yang Gon, Choe Ryong Hae, Kim
Yong Chol, Kang Sok Ju, Kim Kye Gwan, Kim Young Il
It is important to discern the North’s real
motives and counteract them well. Then we can turn the tide in our favor. These
are times when we really need a master strategist.
*Viewpoints expressed in Guest Columns are not necessarily that of Daily NK.
