November 23rd marks the 2nd anniversary of the Yeonpyeong Island shelling, when North Korea, starting at 2:34PM on a weekday afternoon, fired approximately 100 artillery shells onto the island’s military barracks and surrounding residential areas. Two members of the ROK Marines and two civilians were killed that day, while a further sixteen soldiers and ten civilians were injured. The bloody scene was later depicted in the writings of the injured soldiers. Blood gushing out of combat boots cannot easily be forgotten.
North Korea’s attitude to the shelling has not changed in the past two years. Just two days ago, the North declared, “It was the punishment meted out to them after their reckless provocation against us.” Their excuse is that South Korea started it. North Korea also threatened the South, warning that if there is any further comment then there could be another provocation. No apologies, just more threats.
The second anniversary of the Yeonpyeong Island shelling has bred various memorials to the event from the South Korean military and civilians alike, but the way the incident is seen has changed tremendously. These changes can be seen in the remarks of candidates to the upcoming presidential election. Speaking about the South Korean military’s response to Yeonpyeong Island, Park Geun Hye says that she is ready to mobilize all means to respond to future attacks, while candidate Ahn Cheol Soo says he will carefully match North Korean attacks like-for-like. Moon Jae In says that he will prevent such provocations, thus eliminating the need for a military response.
Ahn’s position represents the dilemma we all face. It is true that the president is responsible for sternly responding to incoming attacks while simultaneously preventing war, but if a commander, like Ahn, prioritizes limiting escalation then his soldiers have one hand tied. Moon has not even mentioned responding to attacks, noting that he plans to strengthen national defense so that North Korea does not even think about attacking. This is even more unrealistic; South Korea’s naval power already far exceeds that of North Korea, but the Cheonan sinking still happened.
Some may believe that North Korea is not willing to attack because the South Korean military has shown greater will to retaliate than could be felt two years ago. But this is an extremely simplistic argument. Until he feels the same total power his father felt or until there is economic development in his weakened state, Kim Jong Eun will continue provoking South Korea in order to foster regime-sustaining tension. Now is a time of experiment for him.
Moon and Ahn recently refused to meet the surviving families of the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Island incidents. This is unfortunate, because it would have given us a better chance to confirm what kind of men, presidents and commanders they would be. South Korea’s presidential election is just days away.
