[imText1]Washington D.C — DailyNK conducted an interview with Don Oberdorfer, the Chair of the U.S.-Korea Institute and a Journalist-in-Residence at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. His areas of expertise are: the White House, North and South Korea, Japan, Russia and the former Soviet nations, and the Northeast Asian region.
He served as the diplomatic correspondent for the Washington Post for 17 years, during which he was based in Tokyo, and has received numerous awards for journalistic excellence, including the National Press Club’s Edwin M. Hood Award for diplomatic correspondence (1981, 1988). His published books include: The Two Koreas, The Turn: From the Cold War to a New Era, and Tet!.
– How will Lee Myung Bak’s presidency affect U.S.-Korea relations and North-South Korea relations?
Lee Myung Bak has a lot of experience in the world in comparison with previous South Korean presidents. The military people, Park Chung Hee and Chun Do Hwan, have some military experience, but that’s a special kind of experience, in rather narrow ways. The same with Roh Tae Woo. The previous predecessors were basically were politicians, who hadn’t run anything; they knew how to appeal to the public and how to talk. But Lee was actually the person who was helping to run a part of Hyundai and had some experience with organizations. I think this will help him and it’s a valuable experience to have.
Korea has become quite a complicated place, both economically and politically in the region. It’s not simple anymore. In terms of prior experience, he’s really better qualified than almost anybody in a long time. What he will do it with it, what challenges he will meet, we don’t know, but I think the early signs are rather positive. I talked to him twice last year and in both occasions, he struck me as a sensible, down-to-earth person. So I have considerable expectation that his turn at the leadership in South Korea is going to be one that will deal realistically with the problems at hand. I don’t think he will be the most exciting that Korea has ever had, but I’m not sure if the times call for that.
– Are the talks of reciprocity a sign of the Lee administration’s tougher policy towards North Korea than the previous administrations?
Yes, it is. How far it will go, I don’t know. It may be mostly rhetorical, it may be more than that. This has yet to develop. A part of it depends on how North Korea will respond. If they (the North) lengthens the reporting out in a way that makes him react, there will probably be more of a reaction.
– In light of the recent delay in North Korea’s declaration of its nuclear programs and facilities, what kind of a resolution would be desirable?
It would be desirable if North Korea did what they’re supposed to do, to make this declaration and make it a full and complete one. The general expectation is that they will make the declaration, but it will not be very complete.
So far, they haven’t made any declarations. I think that is unfortunate. It will be harder to deal positively with them if they don’t come through to make the declaration, which they have agreed to do. There is a necessity for North Korea to do it share.
As to why they haven’t done so up-to-date, my guess comes in two parts: there may be people in Pyongyang, who are not interested in current efforts and they don’t agree with the policy of (making) declarations and cooperating in a positive fashion with the South. I don’t know the workings in Pyongyang, but my guess is that those in the military and the Party structures are not too enthusiastic about it.
That may be part of the reason. I think it’s unfortunate that the U.S. has given them some ammunition by not moving ahead with the own commitments that we’ve made, with respect to the terrorism list, etc.
I think the U.S. will do them and my hope is that they go ahead and do them, but that is way beyond my capacity. I remain of the belief that it is in North Korea’s national interest to fulfill the commitments they have made and it may be even more in their national interest now that the new South Korean President is about to take office and with what Lee Myung Bak has said regarding reciprocity.
– What do you think Kim Jong Il’s attitude is towards Lee?
I don’t know what Kim Jong Il thinks about anything. I haven’t detected a clear sign of any important changes in their (North’s) relationship towards South Korea. I know there has been some propaganda put out by some sources in North Korea expressing concern. But I would rather guess that Kim Jong Il would look at this and say, “Those people down there, you never know what they’re going to do. This is the next guy we’ll have to deal with.”
– In what direction do you think U.S.- South Korean relations should head under the new South Korean administration?
U.S.-South Korean relations are pretty good. I don’t see any big problems. Having a more conservative president after having a decade of more progressive presidents should make the Bush administration feel more comfortable with South Korea. Now, what comes after the Bush administration, we don’t know. But I don’t detect any new problems in the relationship. I expect that Lee will be coming here soon, and I expect that he will be warmly welcomed by the current administration.
– There have been criticisms that focusing on U.S.-South Korea relations will neglect North-South Korea relations. Do you think this is the case?
I really don’t think that’s the case. I think an improved U.S.-ROK relations will give more of an incentive for North Korea to improve its relations with the U.S. and that more interchange with North Korea and more engagement, if it takes place, will be widely accepted in Seoul. That is what Seoul has been asking for a long time. I’m sure some people would be suspicious of it, but I think that’s the direction, from what people say, that everybody wants to go in.
