Today marks the 16th anniversary of Kim Il Sung’s death.
Kim Il Sung died at 2AM on July 8, 1994. 34 hours later, on the morning of July 9, a decree was handed down to every work place, school and unit across the country, “There will be a critical announcement at noon on TV. Everybody must watch it.” At noon, an announcer dressed in a black suit read a prepared statement in a mournful tone.
“We, the working class, collective farmers, People’s Army soldiers, intellectuals, young students, Central Committee of the Party, Military Commission of the Party, National Defense Commission of the DPRK, Central People’s CommitteeNorth Korean people's committees are akin to local governmen... More and Administration Council report with mournful heart to the people that the General Secretary of the Chosun Workers’ Party, Premier of the DPRK and Great Leader, Comrade Kim Il Sung passed away unexpectedly at 2AM on July 8, 1994.”
The cause of death was a heart attack. At the time of his passing, there were two pressing issues before Kim: the inter-Korean Summit with South Korean President Kim Young Sam, scheduled for July 25, and the nuclear issue, which was already a tinderbox between the North and the U.S. On the latter, disaster had narrowly been avoided only thanks to former U.S. President Carter’s visit to Pyongyang and a meeting with Kim Il Sung.
Kim died, then, presumably from overwork in preparation for the meeting with Carter in June, preparations for the Summit with Kim Young Sam in July, and eye surgery before that in May.
In the meeting with Carter, Kim claimed, “We don’t have the ability to develop nuclear weapons and no need to produce them.” This comment was accepted by two of the South’s future administrations, those of Kim Dae Jung and Roh Moo Hyun, effectively leading the North to two nuclear tests and snowballing the nuclear issue.
With Kim Il Sung’s death, North Korea all but pronounced its own death. Thereafter, the country has been eking out its life span with the military-first policy and taking economic aid from other countries. Therefore, the Kim Jong Il regime cannot be seen as a “sustainable system” like those of neighboring countries. It is merely a risky regime pregnant with the possibility of collapse at any time.
Moreover, the Kim Jong Il regime is preparing a third generation succession of power. However, the situation and surroundings are unfavorable compared to the first succession from Kim Il Sung to Kim Jong Il. In the 1970s, North Korea was getting by in terms of food, the Cold War system was relatively stable and, therefore, cooperation and aid from countries of the communist bloc was available.
However now there are nuclear problems, serious food problems, human rights violations and markets expanding in the country, not to mention waves of globalization and digitalization. The surroundings are totally different from those of the 1970s.
North Korean people’s own classification of the two periods is harsh and clear: in the Kim Il Sung era people managed to get along, but in the Kim Jong Il era people are dying of hunger.
The opinion of Kim Jong Il has also changed since the 1990s. With the exception of public and official places or meetings, students tend not to call him “the General.” Only the oldest of women deep in the mountains call him “the General” with any sincerity.
In this precarious situation, it is not easy to imagine the succession working out well.
Of course, the possibility of rioting and revolution like the Romanians did is still rather low. However, at the same time, it is also hard to see the new regime stabilizing within three to five years.
After the delegates meeting in September, we will be able to see the structure clearly, but for now there are unusual signals being detected amongst the supposedly monolithic authority of Kim Jong Il. One is that Oh Keuk Ryul and Jang Sung Taek seem to be sharing the power of the Party and the military.
If both figures become members of the standing committee of the Politburo in September, power will move rapidly to the two, especially to Jang.
In the current North Korean situation, the most decisive thing is survival. Regardless of class, the only interest is to survive come what may. Therefore, the pivot from Kim Il Sung to Kim Jong Il has disappeared and the people just want to survive by themselves, for their own wellbeing. Totalitarian systems tend to collapse when each individual in the system demands to survive. North Korea is reaching that point.
It is not an exaggeration to say that the 60 years of modern North Korean history was written by Kim Il Sung, for Kim Il Sung. He died as a god in North Korea, and his son Kim Jong Il has played in the protective shroud of his father’s shadow.
Now, the Kim Jong Il regime and the system is coming to the end of its life. The day of its end will be the day when the shadow of Kim Il Sung is drawn back.
