The North Korean authorities on the 24th requested that Kaesong tours and train services that connect to the South be halted. North Korea furthermore requested the withdrawal of 50 percent of South Korean personnel at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, including the Chief of the Management Committee.
Also, the North Korean envoy to the inter-Korean general-level military talks said, “We will establish stricter regulations regarding transit and customs clearance at the Kaesong Industrial Complex and the Mt. Geumgang tour sites. Anyone who violates the regulations will be harshly sanctioned.” He called this the first measures and warned that there would be second military measures.
North Korea’s actions these days are the same as those that North Korea has used previously.
North Korea has two aims of such actions.
The first strategy is to bring back the last ten years’ North – South relationship by subduing the Lee administration. The second strategy is to request that South Korea not cooperate with the United States. North Korea is basically saying “Listen to us, not the U.S., by cooperating with our nation.”
There are four reasons for such strategies.
First, the North Korean food situation is not too bad.
Second, the relationship between North Korea and China has improved since the Beijing Olympics. The hidden meaning being that North Korea is receiving aid from China internally.
Third, North Korea is attempting to spark troubles within South Korea.
Fourth, due to the rumor of Kim Jong Il’s worsened health, North Korea is coming out stronger than usual.
However, on the notice sent out on the 24th to Kaesong Industrial Complex personnel, North Koreans showed a bit of a concession.
The notice stated that “In contemplation of the difficult conditions for the South’ small and medium-sized enterprises, we have decided to guarantee enterprise activities in the Kaesong Complex and to allow the minimum staff among the residing personnel, so they will be excluded from the blockage measures on overland passage through the MDL.”
This basically means North Korea will permit South Korean companies in Kaesong to continue, if the Lee administration listens to North Korea well, therefore businessmen of the industrial complex should try to convince President Lee.
Then how should South Korea respond?
First, there is no reason for the South Korean government to be stirred since this type of North Korean behavior is typical. North Korea is just doing what it has always done.
Kim Jong Il has already decided to pressure the South Korean government until it yields. That is just Kim Jong Il’s style.
North Korea’s Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland declared the cutting off of all ties with South Korea on the 22nd, as soon as President Lee announced that unification under a free democratic system is the goal. North Korea’s claim on leaflet distribution is the same type of excuse. North Korea’s South Korean policy strategy should be thought to have been decided when a South Korean tourist was shot during the Mt. Geumgang tour.
Therefore, there is no reason for South Korea to be involved in a strategy that has been already decided by the opponent. It is better off to push for “We already knew that is how you would be and we already know how you will act next.”
The South Korean government should maintain the direction that claimed, “Our government is always future-oriented. We always promote a peaceful North-South relationship. South Korea is always ready to have talks with the North that includes development and regularity.”
Second, the South should prepare for North Korea’s local military provocation.
The possibility of provocation while Kim Jong Il in bedridden is low. However, if North Korea provokes the South near the West Sea by the Northern Limit Line (NLL), then it can be seen as a threat to South Korea but also to the U.S., which is considered a belligerent power in the armistice.
There is a high possibility that Kim Jong Il may provoke something at the end of next year, that may be “forceful and lasting” in order to divert Obama’s attention to Kim.
However, looking at Kim Jong Il’s patterns of behaviors that includes the Banco Delta Asia issue in 2005, missile and nuclear testing in 2006, the Inter-Korea Summit in 2007 and his behavior after the Lee administration was inaugurated, he has become more desperate and he lacks concentration. He often does not think about the consequences. We need to consider the possibility of provocation by Kim Jong Il’s mood.
Third, the Lee administration needs to clearly remind North Korea that last decade’s failed policies toward North Korea will not be repeated, even if it takes a long time.
Kim Jong Il tested Kim Dae Jung’s Sunshine Policy out for more than two years. Kim Jong Il, as it was written in a document of the Workers’ Party, regarded the Sunshine Policy as a “scheme to melt down the Republic (North Korea.)” North Korea only decided that the Sunshine policy was safe after testing out from different angles such as the East Sea submarine incident, the Yellow Sea battle, passing through the Jeju strait and more. After deciding that it is safe, Kim Jong Il ordered the United Front Department to seek out strategies to take advantage of it (see the testimony of Jang Jin Sung who worked for the United Front Department of the Party).
As a result, deceptive words like “We could live safely thanks to the Sunshine Policy even when North Korea is testing nuclear weapons” have been mentioned by the former president Kim Dae Jung. The Lee administration needs to just wait until North Korea is willing to co-exist and co-prosper.
Kim Jong Il is not the kind of “fool” who might take off his clothes just because of strong sunshine. Although embarrassing, concentration-lacking Kim Jong Il is much more advanced in strategizing than former president Ro Moo Hyun.
Fourth, we need to offer conditions that will make Kim Jong Il realize “such co-existing and co-prospering would be beneficial.”
The Kim Jong Il regime will attempt to get closer to China or the U.S. while beating its relationship with South Korea. Such a direction is not disadvantageous for us. Although Kim Jong Il will try to isolate South Korea while communicating with the U.S., Kim Jong Il will not be able to go beyond the U.S.-ROK alliance. North Korea’s strategy of isolating South Korea while communicating with the U.S. is not in touch with reality. What the Lee administration needs to do is to cooperate with the U.S. and China in order to denuclearize and open up the North Korean regime. In other words, the Lee administration needs to put efforts into international cooperation to attract North Korea into a sphere of co-existence and co-prosperity.
Think of the current North Korean clamor regarding the Kaesong Industrial Complex as a sort of growing pain in the process of developing that policy.
