Assemblywoman and national defense expert Song Young Sun forecasted on Thursday that “North Korea will provoke us, attempting military exercises south of the NLL (Northern Limit Line) soon after the end of ‘Key Resolve’… which will finish on the 20th.”
Song was speaking on a Peace Broadcasting Company (PBC) radio program, continuing, “North Korea is likely to provoke us between the 21st of March and the 15th of April, according to its past pattern of action. Especially, there is a higher possibility of North Korea provoking something from the 4th of April until the 8th, the period when North Korea has claimed it will launch a missile.”
Assemblywoman Song predicted that, “If we (South Korea) object and react against it, North Korea will be more likely to incite us by saying, ‘It is just a peaceful exercise. You held military drills with the United States between the 9th of March and the 20th, why is our military exercise considered an intrusion upon your sovereignty?’”
Song also pointed out that “Although South Korea needs to firmly respond, what is more important is deterrence. It is most important to show clearly where we stand so that North Korea will not even imagine provoking anything.”
Regarding the current Kaesong Industrial Complex incident, she believes that “Our government is not responsible for the incidents. Regulations have significance only when both parties are willing to stick to them. Such incidents will be repeated since in North Korea, Kim Jong Il’s words are more important than regulations.”
She continued, “It has been calculated that the losses in accordance with the closing down of the complex would be approximately 100 times more for North Korea than for the South. Nevertheless, North Korea seems to be closing it down as a consequence of using various pressures against us.”
