North Korea released a joint statement in the name of its government, Party and organizations yesterday, showing again the desire to undermine comparatively united South Korean public opinion on North Korea and simultaneously maintain the support it receives from China.
This is the first proposal for dialogue in the form of a joint statement since the inauguration of the Lee Myung Bak administration. Furthermore, it has come more swiftly than in other years; during the Roh Moo Hyun administration, North Korea proposed dialogue in the form of a joint statement on January 17th, 2007 and January 26th, 2006.
The joint statement read, “Confrontation can never resolve inter-Korean problems and will only result in military conflict and war; this is the evaluation of the last three years,” and concluding, “We propose the holding of an unconditional dialogue between the authorities in power.”
However, the South Korean government says that it can feel no sense of sincerity in the call. Blue House spokesperson Kim Hee Jong dismissed the proposal on January 6th, calling it a “public relations strategy rather than a suggestion of any sincerity,” while an official from the Ministry of Unification went further, saying, “It is the annual offensive against South Korea in the form of a united front.”
It seems also that North Korea made the proposal for dialogue partly in order to get to a dialogue with the U.S. further down the track. Washington has made it clear that Seoul is in the lead on contact with Pyongyang, and the North Korean leadership is likely to have accepted for the time being that it must talk to the South first of all.
However, the U.S. reaction to North Korea’s proposal for dialogue is one of studied indifference. Philip Crowley, the State Department spokesman, emphasized again the need for a ‘sincere’ change of attitude from North Korea on Wednesday, commenting, “It’s not just for North Korea to say okay, fine, we’ll come talk. There has to be an appropriate context and there are things that North Korea has to show both South Korea and the United States that it is prepared to have a sustained and constructive dialogue.”
Nevertheless, North Korea’s charm offensive is expected to continue for the time being. Internationally isolated and in poor economic circumstances, Pyongyang can kill three birds with one stone with this conciliatory gesture: paving the way for dialogue with the U.S.; buttressing Chinese support; and causing conflict in South Korean society.
The move will certainly help Chinese leader Hu Jintao, who is facing a discussion about North Korea during the January 21st U.S.-China summit in Washington, D.C. As expected, the Chinese government expressed its early support for the North Korean proposal on January 6th, saying, “China has always considered dialogue and negotiation as the only effective path to resolving issues on the Korean peninsula.”
Talking to The Daily NK today, Cho Young Ki, a professor from Korea University in Seoul, put summit considerations at the forefront of the North’s thinking, saying, “This was probably an attempt to avoid criticism at the United States-China summit,” adding that North Korea can side with China more closely if it continuously calls for dialogue.
Also, Cho noted that North Korea can grasp the initiative in dialogue between the North and South Korean authorities when it eventually takes place by making the first call for discussions. In addition, he said Pyongyang can empower “voices of peace and cooperation” in South Korea, reducing the power of negative public sentiment.
“North Korea’s proposal for dialogue is very strategic. It is intended to cause internal conflict within South Korea by instigating the pro-North Korea parties in South Korea,” Cho explained, adding that he imagines that North Korea may even propose a summit in the near future.
Meanwhile, the target political parties and social groups within South Korea have reacted as North Korea will have predicted, welcoming the proposal for dialogue, with the leftist New Progressive Party declaring, “The South Korean government needs to review North Korea’s proposition sincerely and actively participate in the forum for dialogue.”
Going forward, it seems likely that North Korea will continue with its charm offensive, waiting for a readout on the United States-China summit and watching for shifts in South Korean public opinion before choosing its next step.
