When estimating North Korean food demand, it is best to set up the commoners as a standard.
When the price of rice was stable, the staple foods of farmers and common folks were potatoes and corn. Because of this, we should seriously consider whether rice consumed by the minority of nobles or grain with 60 percent corn and 40 percent rice generally consumed by commoners is a good index of food prices, when estimating the North Korean food situation.
On May 27, the food price in North Korea is as follows, based on the research of the several sources from North Korea.
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There would not be a massive starvation.
In Nampo, Pyongsung, Suncheon, Hamheung, Hyesan, Chongjin and other major cities, the rice price is stabilizing around 2,500 won.
In North Hanghae and Kangwon provinces, the food situation was reportedly quite serious. In the first week of May, food aid from other provinces and stored rice for wartime were sent from some large cities to Kangwon Province in order to feed soldiers, according to sources.
Despite the latest sudden rise in food prices, sources and defectors who have a personal network in North Korea said that “There is no possibility of a massive starvation breaking out.”
When those who starve to death increase, people gather in big cities. They are called “kotjebi.” In May, the food crisis went through the roof. If the current situation were as serious as the period of the March of Tribulation, people would start rushing into cities from rural areas and nameless bodies also would be seen in front of stations and in the vicinity of the jangmadang. However, it is presently not that terrible.
The rumor of a massive starvation from late June and July talked about by some South Korean organizations is not a reasonable assumption to make for the North Korean situation. Around June 15, peas and other crops of grain are supposed to be reaped and from June 22 potato and barley are harvested. At this time, even though we cannot say that the food crisis will be solved, the peak time of the food shortage will have passed by.
The reason why people are suffered from the food shortage is that the authorities regulate the jangmadang. However, these days, in some regions, the authorities have loosened the regulation over markets and allowed traders to circulate food between provinces to prevent people from starving.
In some urban areas, households with a food shortage were chosen by the People’s Units and guaranteed some stored rice. Since May 20, a measure has been carried out that meant that kotjebis were sent to nursery schools or schools.
It certainly seems to be hard to completely prevent people from dying for hunger, but a massive starvation just like the one in the late-1990s will not be occurring, according to the several sources.
