Concerns are emerging that the continuing paralysis of state affairs due to the “Choi Soon Sil-Gate”controversy might sabotage South Korea’s diplomatic and security policies. Although the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of National Defense have both announced that they will firmly proceed with existing diplomatic and security policies, considering the fact that such policies have been direct initiatives of President Park Geun Hye, issues are expected to emerge.
Experts have also expressed concern that the nation’s diplomatic and security capacity, as well as its reputation will dramatically decline due to the instability wrought by the scandal. Momentum may be lost toward the process of discussing sanctions against North Korea following its fifth nuclear test, while negotiations of new terms for the alliance with the incoming new U.S. government may be compromised. Some have even raised the prospect that government ministers, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs, may have to represent the government as a deputy of the President, as a form of ‘summit diplomacy.’
It is also considered possible that North Korea may exploit the current situation by conducting additional nuclear or missile tests, or cyber attacks. In particular, satirical remarks by South Korean citizens have become commonplace, noting that the incident has given the North the upper hand with its continuing references to the “Choi Soon Sil incident” in its state propaganda.
Daily NK has interviewed several North Korea experts regarding the current situation and future directions for diplomacy and security. Most expect that the crisis will not be resolved in the near future as the entire nation is embroiled in the developments, but agree that the established policies in diplomatic and security affairs should nevertheless be carried forth.
◆ Professor Hong Sung Ki, Ajou University
The next one or two years are a critical period for dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue. If the South Korean President fails to consistently push the policy toward the North, it could lead to a very uneasy situation. Therefore, the state needs to stick to the established policies toward the North even in the current crisis. The first step is to consolidate a defensive system consisting of all possible measures, inclusive of the US-ROK alliance and the US nuclear umbrella, in order to restrain provocations from Pyongyang. The second step would be to form a strategy to maintain the current sanctions on North Korea despite the continued reluctance of China. Lastly, there must be consistent external information disseminated in the North to the extent that the North Korean regime can no longer maintain its grip on power.
◆ Song Dae Sung, former director of Sejong Research Institute
Regardless of what form of government will take shape in the future, we need to be on the lookout for those who will try to radically change policies for diplomacy and security. It will create a very concerning situation if people appointed to these positions do not properly acknowledge the North Korea threat or are themselves influenced by the North Korean regime, endanger the ROK-US alliance, or seek to turn attention away from the nuclear crisis. Even if the existing political structure collapses and is replaced by a new one, the diplomatic and security policies already established should be pushed forward without being compromised.
Diplomacy and security are directly linked to the nation’s credibility. If a person who does not have a clear understanding of North Korea is elevated to a position of influence, the ROK-US alliance will be damaged, thereby increasing the security threat as we will not be able to effectively counter North Korea’s threats without the aid of our allies. Therefore, at least in the fields of diplomacy and security, the person in charge must be someone who can maintain the strength of the Republic of Korea and the ROK-US alliance.
◆ Professor Song Bong Sun, Korea University
The current situation will have a considerable negative impact on the Republic of Korea’s diplomatic and security initiatives. Recently, North Korea has been on the defensive (due to sanctions and other measures) but it has now been presented with a new opportunity to convert to an aggressive stance. If the situation continues, the ruling power and national security will be severely damaged, which may have catastrophic consequences for the nation. There will be a serious blow to our diplomatic efforts as well. When negotiating diplomatic matters, other countries will have doubts as to whether the unsteady government of South Korea can be trusted to execute the agreed terms. Thus, it will bring tremendous damage to the national interest if the political turbulence continues.
Now is the time to further strengthen the ROK-US alliance in regards to the North Korean nuclear issue and human rights issues. But it is questionable whether the new leadership, including the prime minister, will be able to achieve this. Personally, I think there should be a mechanism to protect national security issues from political infighting.
◆ Yoo Dong Yul, Director of the Liberal Democracy Research Institute
It is true that the diplomatic and security situation is seemingly unstable with the national leader involved in an unacceptable scandal. There will be limitations as a result for normal diplomacy. It would be better to dispatch the prime minister or the minister of foreign affairs to attend diplomacy summits in the meantime. However, as the existing diplomatic and security systems are still in operation, we are not on the verge of chaos. The choices that President Park makes in the future will of course be very important. What the President must do is to form a reliable cabinet that can serve the nation, not a coalition cabinet in which responsibility is absent and national values are confused. With such a measure, the President also needs to put her efforts into restoring the integrity of the nation’s administration by recruiting a number of people who are loyal to constitutional values.
