[imText1]On the 14th, the U.N. Security Council adopted a resolution against N. Korea that is mainly saying about diplomatic-economic sanctions. What is most important from now is what impact the resolution would make on N. Korean politics and economy.
Many people expect that since N. Korea has kept itself isolated without being collapsed, the resolution would not make a great impact on it. However, this view is not exactly reading the economical changes of N. Korea occurred since the mid-90’s.
The point is that if the resolution of the U.N Security Council is faithfully carried out and China joins the economic sanction against N. Korea, the economic sanction would make a great negative impact on N. Korean economy. It would also stir up the political foundation of Kim Jong Il regime.
N. Korean economy, since the mid-90’s it has been changed into a foreign-dependent economy
The nature of N. Korean economy has been greatly changed into a foreign-dependent economy from a self-reliant economy since the mid-90’s
The witnesses of defectors showed that since the mid-90’s, few factories have been working. In Jangmadang (a sort of the black market), there are few goods made in N. Korea. Most of the goods North Koreans use are made in China, South Korea and Japan. That means the real life of North Korean people is already greatly dependent on foreign economies.
Then, can we confirm the dependence of N. Korea on foreign economies is increasing? The dependence of an economy is shown in the total amount of foreign trades and GDP. When we consider this amount, the dependence of South Korea amounts for 68.8%.
We can draw the dependency of N. Korea on foreign economies with the amount of foreign trades, yet the statistics of N. Korea is not reliable. The total amount of N. Korean foreign trades is usually exact because its trade partners show the exact amount of N. Korean trades.
However, GDP is another story. It comes only from N. Korea, so we cannot be sure if the GDP N. Korea shows is correct or not.
China, it depends on South Korea.
The authoritative GDP per capital of N. Korea was, for the first time, mentioned by Minister Lee Jong Seuk of National Unification who participated in TV debate right after the missile conflict in June. Minister Lee Jong Seuk said that GDP per capital of N. Korea is much less than that of Vietnam, which is about 300 dollars.
If GDP of N. Korea is about 300 dollars, then what is the dependence of N. Korea? We can infer it would be 67.5%. This is almost same as that of South Korea. According to Korea Trade Association, the total amount of N. Korean foreign trades is 4,057,000,000 dollars.
According to this figure, the dependence of N. Korea is about 50% to 67%. Of the percentage, 40 % is China, % is South Korea, other countries are Taiwan, Russia, Japan and EU.
If China and Korea faithfully carry out the resolution of U.N Security Council, the impact on N. Korea would be great. In a short term, 50 to 75% of the N. Korean population would be influenced by the economic sanction directly.
The dissatisfaction against Kim Jong Il will be likely to rise
If the dependence of N. Korea on foreign economies are great, how about the politics of it? The political impact against N. Korea would depend on the participation of China and Korea, especially that of China.
If China does not actively join the U.N resolution, the economic sanction will form a structure, U.S, Japan and South Korea against North Korea. This structure would be a source for extending the anti-U.S struggle which has done since the Korean War. Thus, anti-ideology of the North Koreans and the bandage for Kim Jong Il regime would be strengthened.
Yet, if China acts against N. Korea, there would be another story. China has been conceived an ally by North Korean people. Since China had supported N. Korea during the Korea War, the North Korean people are in favor of China.
So, if China acts against N. Korea, the North Korean people would think that because of the nuclear test, even their ally abandon them, which is likely to increase the dissatisfaction of the North Korean people against Kim Jong Il regime.
The trades with China made a significantly big privilege class in North Korea. The class is financial resources for the Party, military and politicians, so that if China imposes a sanction against N. Korea, the privilege class of N. Korea would be greatly negatively influenced. This is likely to increase dissatisfaction and ferment in the class.
Absolutely, Kim Jong Il regime might not be collapsed easily. For the collapse of a regime could happen not only when its people are against the regime, but also a substitute regime is firmly established. Now it is not likely that a substitute regime for Kim Jong Il regime has been formed.
However, what I am sure is that if the U.N resolution continues to be carried out faithfully, and China continues to act against N. Korea, Kim Jong Il regime would be collapsed economically and politically. At the same time, the weaker Kim Jong Il regime is, the more likely its substitute regime could be established.
