Pyongyang’s personal attacks on South Korean
President Park Geun Hye and her vision for unification, increasingly shrill
assertions of a “severe situation on the Chosun Peninsula,” and the determination to place the blame squarely at the feet of the “USA and hostile
powers” all point to a protracted cool period in inter-Korean relations.
North Korea’s ratcheting of tensions appears to represent outright refusal of President Park’s vision for a unified Korean Peninsula,
what has come to be called the “Dresden Doctrine.” The proposals contained
in the speech that Park made in the former East German city were designed to bring the
North into the international community, rather than receiving aid and assistance. However, Park also called for denuclearization, which
North Korea is not prepared to consider and reacts to increasingly badly when
it is suggested. The restarting of tourism at Mt. Geumgang and other projects
of a similar nature are far more palatable prospects for the regime.
Experts predict that the North’s rejection of the
Dresden Doctrine, named after a city that
exemplifies the merits of unification through absorption, is a sure sign that
inter-Korean relations can only get worse before they get better.
During a meeting on the 1st, Kim Jong Eun
described the current situation on the Korean Peninsula as “extremely
severe.” Further mention of the United States’ “hostile policy against
the Chosun people and military” indicates that his regime will not do anything
diplomatically productive until they sense the international tide turning in
their favor.
A raft of domestic considerations besets North Korea. This
month sees the first session of the 13th Supreme People’s Assembly (April 9th),
the anniversary of Kim Il Sung’s birth (April 15th), and Military
Foundation Day (April 25th). When Pyongyang is seeking to
shore up internal solidarity while publicly lauding the military-first
political line, the world has to expect sabers to rattle.
A scheduled April visit to South Korea by U.S President
Barack Obama and the continuation of joint military drills until late in the
month add to the pessimism. It is unlikely that Pyongyang will consider
approaching the negotiating table, and, moreover, with two primitive
reconnaissance drones landing on South Korean soil in recent days, the
possibility of Pyongyang seizing on a pretext to conduct a risky provocation
cannot be ruled out.
Shedding light on the complex situation, Yoo Dong Yeol, the
director of the Freedom and Democracy Research Institute told Daily NK, “The
North will probably continue to take a firm stance toward South Korea and the
States to try and affect a change in their policy, so we can expect
inter-Korean relations to stay deadlocked for the time being. There is also potential
for Kim Jong Eun to engage in a variety of military threats through June 25th [the
anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War], as he wants to secure the
domestic environment.”
“Once again, they are going
to adopt a strategy of maintaining a firm policy toward the government [of
South Korea] while promoting exchanges with civil society groups, ” he went on.
“The government should make various proposals along the lines of the Dresden
Doctrine to try and release the pressure and bring North Korean change, whilst
also preparing a strategy of long term isolation that can end the regime.”
