Today marks the 60th day since the de facto closure of the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC). From the South Korean government’s perspective, the prolonged closure of the Complex has been rendered unavoidable by the refusal of the Kim Jong Eun regime to engage in state-to-state dialogue with Seoul.
And yet, when Chosun People’s Army General Political Department director Choi Ryong Hae travelled to China last week as a special envoy from Kim Jong Eun, he informed his Chinese interlocutors that North Korea seeks dialogue with neighboring countries. This raised hopes, both in South Korea and abroad, that North Korea might be changing tack; however, the day after Choi returned to Pyongyang the North Korean media attacked President Park Geun Hye by name, suggesting that, at best, North Korea only seeks dialogue with some of its neighbors.
Conversely, North Korea appears to be working to foster internecine “South-South conflict” inside South Korea. It is doing so by approaching private groups at the same time as it continues to reject governmental discourse. This is happening in two main ways; first, by exhibiting a willingness to negotiate with companies operating in the KIC on the release of their raw materials and finished goods still in the Complex; and, second, by promoting the idea of a commemorative event to mark June 15th, the 13th anniversary of the 2000 inter-Korean summit.
South Korea is in no mood to acquiesce to the North Korean strategy, and continues to ask for working-level discussions between the two authorities. As President Park put it on May 31st, “Even though the government is constantly saying ‘let’s talk’ and ‘let’s resolve the Kaesong Complex issue and have dialogue,’ (North Korea) constantly refuses, while, at the same time, telling private groups that ‘we will guarantee your welfare and you can take all your products out, so come here.’ Does this make sense?”
Speaking about the current state of affairs, Cho Bong Hyun of the Industrial Bank of Korea’s economic research arm explained, “Since the (launch of the) Kim Jong Eun system, North Korea has been continuously raising military tensions, but has not got the strength to actually implement its plans.”
“Conversely, to North Korea the Kaesong Complex is one way in which it can pressure South Korea; in other words, it is a card it can actually play in this situation,” he went on.
Meanwhile, a number of South Korean analysts have suggested that the issue of the Kaesong Industrial Complex shutdown cannot possibly be resolved without a broader resolution, or at least an easing, of the current Korean Peninsula confrontation. Yet, North Korea is not readily able to do so at present, in part since the United States and South Korea are unprepared to acknowledge it as a nuclear power, and demand practical denuclearization moves prior to any return to the Six-Party Talks.
