[imText1]On the 9th, Rodong Shinmun reported on the 13th anniversary of Kim Jong ll becoming the Chairman of the National Defense Commission, held in the 2.8 Pyongyang Cultural Center on the 8th, including the strong message of Kim Il Chul, the Minister of the Ministry of the People’s Armed forces, that, “A preemptive strike is not a method that only the U.S. can use, and we will not sit back and look on with folded arms until the U.S first attacks us.”
In North Korea, the commemorative event for the Chairman of the National Defense Commission, whose position to manage military and administrative issues, is usually considered more important than that of other events. The event was not simply a celebration, but also a means of covering up such difficulties as the U.S economic sanction and the six party talks.
Thus, this strong message is receiving much attention on how it will affect the political atmosphere in South Korea.
Strong Response-Appeasement Policy-Self Reliance, Three Key Words
The cards North Korea puts against the U.S are usually these three strategies: “Strong Response-Appeasement Policy-Self Reliance”. Sometimes North Korea uses them at different times, and sometimes it uses them all at once. The strong response and appeasement policy are for foreign countries, and self-reliance is for domestic North Koreans.
This time North Korea is also attempting to establish its favorite negotiation position by connecting the economic sanction issue and the six-party talks it is facing with the three strategies.
In reality, it is North Korea that is afraid of war. Nevertheless, the fact that North Korea uses strong words, such as ‘preemptive strike’ and ‘nuclear threat’, unhesitatingly shows that it is trying to take South Korea hostage. The visual object that North Korea can attack is truly only South Korea. The fact that North Korea attempts to solve the foreign problem with the U.S by taking South Korea hostage is the intrinsic nature of ‘ethnical cooperation’.
Kim Jong Il made 8 field inspections of the military this March, and recently it has been increasing. This can be interpreted as a movement to propagate its hard line against the U.S abroad, and also to arouse the attention of soldiers and North Koreans. These inspections are not only for foreign countries but also for North Koreans.
At the same time, North Korea is showing an appeasement movement through talks. On the 7th, Kim Kye Gwan, the Vice Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs who was in Tokyo to participate in The Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD) revealed that, “We will not avoid any talks with the U.S, if it asks”. This is also a strategy to carry out its hard line and appeasement policy side by side.
North Korea is very likely to continue asking for a lift of the U.S financial sanction against North Korea at the Tokyo conference. North Korea always acts in this manner. It will delay talks by asking for light-water reactors and lifting of the financial sanction, and afterwards advance the hard-line policy and then suggest other issues to the six-party talks.
I do not know what preconceived plan the U.S has. However, at first the U.S kept saying the financial sanction was irrelevant to the six-party talks, and later changed its position of dealing with the issue in the six-party talks. This change is seen to concede the issue in North Korea’s favor, which North Korea was attempting to put priority on by stubbornly resisting.
