[imText1]Immediately following the 5th round of six-party talks last year, the U.S. denoted North Korea’s problem of counterfeit money, and Macau’s Banco Delta Asia (BDA) froze North Korea’s capital funds.
Subsequently, North Korea claimed it would not attend the talks unless the economic sanctions were withdrawn, to which the U.S. did not respond. In the end, North Korea launched the ‘Daepodong-2’ on the 5th, one of 7 missiles.
North Korea caught the attention of the international community when its military power was demonstrated by simultaneously launching the scud and Roding missiles.
Following the incident, the U.N. Security Council drafted a resolution condemning North Korea, and China’s Deputy Foreign Minister Wu Da Wei immediately visited Pyongyang. Deputy Minister Wu unofficially tried to strongly urge North Korea to return to the six-party talks, however, North Korea did not accept his solicitations.
Even North Korea’s advocates, China and Russia, attended the Security Council meetings, agreeing unanimously to pass the North Korean resolution. It is the second time the U.N. Security Council has drafted a North Korean resolution, the first which was after the Korean War.
When reviewing these historical affairs, from the U.S. taking economic measures, to the missile situation, to the position of the Security Council implementing a North Korean resolution, it is important to note the series of actions taken by North Korea.
1. Why is Kim Jong Il so fixated on the $24 million from BDA?
First of all, for what reasons is “North Korea so fixated on the $24 million held in 50 or so BDA accounts?”
Undoubtedly, $24 million is a large figure. However, compared to the amount of money produced by governmental capital funds, this is the cost of ‘chewing gum.’ Considering that Kim Jong Il spends about $1 million on toys for his son’s birthday (verified by Lee Han Young, nephew of Kim Jong Il’s wife), in the end this figure is not that substantial.
Despite the fact that the Kim Jong Il government is unable to influence Kim Jong Il’s money laundering acts, as well as the U.S. demanding the application of economic measures to force North Korea into the 6-party talks, $24 million is not just a simple issue.
Through these measures, world banks are voluntarily avoiding commerce with North Korea. Recently, even Vietnam and Mongolia have restrained withdrawals of cash and remittance, influencing regular trade.
In addition to the BDA Bank, it is assumed that $4.5 billion of Kim Jong Il’s secret funds are fixed in a Swiss Bank. It is analyzed that Kim Jong Il is taking a stubborn ‘aggressive foreign policy’ because he believes that if he is overridden by the BDA once, then he will be defeated by all.
2. Why were the missiles launched at once?
Secondly, the question remains “Why did North Korea launch the missiles all at once?”
In the early morning of the 5th, North Korea simultaneously launched 7 missiles, including an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM), the ‘Daepodong-2’ (ranging a distance of 6,000~10,000km), a scud missile (ranging 300~500km) and a Rodong missile (range within 1,300km). It can be analyzed that the connotations of these launches is to send a warning to the U.S., Japan, and South Korea.
The ‘Intended Failure’ of the ‘Daepodong-2’ has specifically worried the international community, as correct discernment of North Korea’s message cannot be made. No matter what. difficulties could arise through the selling of missiles in places like the Middle East.
On top of the simultaneous launches, Kim Jong Il wants to show the U.S., Japan, and other powerful countries the ‘Commissioner’s strength’, and display the unity amongst North Korean comrades.
3. Why did North Korea stay firm and disregard China’s solicitation?
Thirdly, there is the argument of “Why did North Korea disregard China’s unofficial solicitation of the six-party talks?”
With the forthcoming U.N. Security Council’s agreement on the North Korean resolution after North Korea’s missile launch, Deputy Foreign Minister Wu Da Wei went to Pyongyang on an unofficial visit to persuade North Korea to return to the six-party talks and declare a ‘moratorium’ on the missile tests (to postpone missile launches). However Kim Jong Il would not even meet with Wu Da Wei.
It seems that North Korea has concluded that it is not the time for negotiations, and is trying to turn the attention of the international community away from Iran to North Korea by launching missiles. It is analyzed that North Korea’s actions stem from the idea that if North Korea gains the interest of the international community through the missile conflict, it will be able to negotiate on high ground, gaining concessions for itself.
In particular, in spite of China being a supporter of North Korea, the fact that China’s solicitations are not being accepted clearly shows that North Korea no longer listens to China, and that there is no issue between the two nations greater than missiles and nuclear weapons.
4. Why have North Korea’s foreign affairs officials responded so hastily?
Lastly, in regard to the North Korean resolution that the U.N. Security Council unanimously passed on the 16th, why did North Korea’s foreign affairs officials announce that they denounce the U.N. resolution?
Within 45 minutes of the U.N. resolution being passed, North Korea’s representative ambassador for the U.N. said “This kind of beastly political act is to pressurize North Korea into helplessness. We completely reject the Security Council’s resolution”. He warned “In the case that the sanctions turn into action, strong measures will be taken without any hesitation.”
It is important to focus on the fact that North Korea’s immediate response to this missile situation is different from its actions in the past.
This is brinkmanship taken by North Korea in defense of the missile launch. In spite of the pressure on North Korea-U.S. bilateral talks and the consistent rejection by the Bush administration of such talks, the fact that no one is being coerced into North Korea’s all-our war shows that Kim Jong Il is becoming impatient.
Kim Jong Il’s inexhaustible militant attitude suggests that he has not yet grasped the circumstances of the international situation, and is fixated on personal successes of the past. Already, in support of the Security Council’s resolution, China and Russia are warning North Korea of taking further provocative actions, which North Korea has so far chosen to ignore.
