An anonymous South Korean diplomatic source has poured cold water on talk of an impending serious crisis in the North Korean regime, saying he expects Pyongyang to continue using military tensions as a tool in the elevation of Kim Jong Eun and reform of the power structure in 2011.
Giving his predictions for the coming year on December 23rd, the source said, “Kim Jong Eun was handed the image of a ‘military leader’ when he was appointed Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission of the Chosun Workers’ Party at the Party Delegates’ Conference of September 28th; now he will try to change that image into one of a ‘national leader’ next year.”
“They will develop his ‘achievements’ centrally through the promotion and fabrication of symbols, national projects and the military,” he added.
The source said he sees a number of areas of concern, though, explaining, “There is the possibility of internal and external instability being increased by internal conflicts within the elite; incremental increases in popular complaint due to food and economic crises; and intensification of North Korea’s international isolation due to the hard line of the military authorities.”
Furthermore, he said, there is the skepticism of the people engendered, primarily, by the 2009 currency redenomination fiasco.
Nevertheless, he also said he believes the possibility of the North Korean regime losing control and facing an emergency situation in the near future is still low.
“When we consider cases of vulnerable and failed states, the inability to govern and paralysis of national functions presage regime collapse. However, in the case of North Korea, the ruling mechanism is still working.”
Also, the source noted, Kim Jong Il does not appear unduly unhealthy. “Considering the vigorous activity of this year, it appears that there will not be big difficulties ruling,” he pointed out.
Looking to the economic field, the source said it would be difficult to move quickly to change economic policy since the establishment of a stable hereditary succession is the priority, and thus the basis of the planned economy will be maintained.
He analyzed that North Korea will yet again attempt to produce results based on the “Juche economy” in areas like metals, fertilizer and fabrics, but that even if visible results are achieved, supply-side distortions will occur and eventually there will be the same big economic difficulties as before.
Indeed, the source commented, “There is a high possibility of distortions on the supply side actually getting worse, since resources will be concentrated in key sectors for the purpose of arriving at visible outcomes.”
This, the source commented, “is the outcome of not reinvesting since the mid 1970s. When some sectors are focused on in onsite inspections, it can create side effects in the long term and become a reason for the worsening of the economy.”
Of course, the source added, North Korea is likely to continue to put on the military pressure next year and attempt to have an influence on the outcome of South Korea’s election due for late 2012.
The source stated, “North Korea will aggravate internal conflict in South Korea and pressure the South Korean government to change its North Korea policy by escalating military tensions next year. Through this process, they will characterize the structure as one of a ‘war-supporting party and peace-supporting party’ to induce defeat in general and presidential elections in 2012.”
