After analyzing North Korea’s state of domestic and foreign affairs in the first half of this year, it seems that the country has encountered some internal uncertainty due to the growth of the market and the food crisis. Yet, the Kim Jong Il regime seems to have been preserved as a whole.
The Korea Institute for National Unification stated in “The State of Domestic and Foreign Affairs in North Korea in the First Half of the Year”, which was published on the 31st, “The Rumor of Kim Jong Il’s death circulated at the end of May, but currently, it does not seem likely that Kim Jong Il will lose his position via a coup d’etat or a popular revolution. Despite rumors of his poor health, Kim has been vigorously participating in activities, including 48 site inspections, and there has not been a decline in his power.”
However, the report stated, “Despite Kim Jong Il’s fortified position, he uses both compulsory and persuasive policies in order to soothe discontented factions. Kim has toughened regulations over markets as to prevent the loosening of the citizens’ ideological consciousness.”
◆ North Korea’s Domestic Affairs: “Worsening of the Food Crisis, Replacement of the Elite”
The report further noted, “The regulation of political deviants and the exposing of corruption by Jang Sung Taek, the Director of the Ministry of Administration of the Chosun (North Korea) Workers’ Party, have been carried out. In the North however, the newly-rising wealthy class, mostly foreign currency-earners, have been appearing and they have amassed wealth by illicitly dealing drugs.”
Moreover, the report analyzed, “Due to the passing of aged high officials, a change in the ruling generation has been taking place. There have also been reshufflings as a result of policy failures or operational mistakes, such as the replacement of the Inter-Korea Ministerial Talks Representative Kwon Ho Woong or the Cabinet Trade Representative Lim Kyung Nam.”
Speaking of the food situation in the North, it pointed out, “North Korea’s supply and demand for food the first half of the year of 2008 was at its worst due to the reduction of aid from international society and bad harvests since 2002. Also, food distribution problems as a result of market regulations and hoarding have limited civilian provisions.”
Regarding the government’s attitude, it expressed, “North Korea is continuing to emphasize the education of socialist ideology in order to prevent a slackening in the system as a consequence of grassroots marketization and the inflow of capitalist thoughts. Concerned about the shifting citizens’ mentality due to the change in North Korea-U.S. relations, the authorities have been urging the people to guard themselves against the fantasy of imperialism.
It also added, “In order to prevent deviant acts and commotion among the citizens due to the influx of foreign trends and the worsening economic crisis, all kinds of inspections have been toughened. In order to arouse the people’s consciousness regarding the outflow of information, regulations against acts, including mobile phone usage, theft, and espionage. have been strengthened.”
It said, “North Korea has high expectations for the Beijing Olympics which opens on August 8th, and has been putting forth its best effort to attract foreign tourists who are visiting Beijing. On August 4th, four days before the Olympics, the Arirang Performance is scheduled to begin, and on the days when the Arirang Performance is not being held, “Fatherland, Prosper!” will be performed.”
◆ North Korea’s Foreign Policy: Improved Relations with the U.S. and China
With regards to its foreign policy, the Institute reported, “Considering that improvements in North Korea-U.S. relations are the key to resolving the economic crisis and preserving the security of the [North Korean] system, it has been focusing on relations with the U.S. as its main foreign policy.”
It commented further, “In the latter half of this year, the North will exert an active effort to restore friendly relations with China. The reason for North Korea’s devotion to improving relations with the U.S. could be attributed to its strategy of drawing in China, who passively supported the country after the nuclear experiments.”
In terms of its South Korea policy, the Institute noted, “North Korea seems to be communicating with the U.S. while isolating the South, but in contrast to past practices, it has intensely criticized the policies of the Lee Myung Bak administration while comparatively accepting activities in nongovernmental fields.
It observed, “Not only has the North criticized policies such as Vision 3000: Denuclearization and Openness, the Lee administration’s policy on North Korea, but it has specifically targeted South Korean officials, such as President Lee and the Minister or Vice-minister of Unification as well.” In addition, it noted, “North Korea has triggered military problems, while it also elicited positive public opinion in South Korea through moderate actions and pressing the Lee administration.”
Further, it evaluated, “By actively meddling in the candlelight protests against the beef import which erupted in the South, the North exacerbated the state of affairs. By taking advantage of the protests, it intensified its criticism of the Lee administration.”
“North Korea, which went on the defensive after the Mt. Geumgang shooting incident, has adopted the strategy of threatening the South once again by attempting to make an issue of the October 4 Agreement. The strategy of North Korea pressing the South is against the backdrop of North Korea’s efforts to step out of the influence of South Korea in the last ten years and to multiply economic cooperation [such as the Kaesong Complex] with international society.”
