North Korea Will Emphasize Maintenance Nuclear Deterrence in 2008

Park Hyun Min  |  2008-01-02 15:25
[imText1]It was predicted that North Korea will focus on the revival of the economy to find changes internally and negotiate with the U.S. internationally to maintain a framework of negotiation.

In the "2008 Prediction of North Korea's Situation" announced by the Korea Institute for National Unification on 30th stated that "North Korea will especially focus on the 'Maintenance of the Nuclear Deterrence [for the purpose of negotiating with nuclear states" and predicted that "the maintenance of nuclear deterrence instills in the North Korean residents minds about Kim Jong Il's greatness and such will be used to strengthen the regimes traditional values.

In addition, they stated that "as a result of the Bush administration, regarding the fact that the problem of solving the North Korean nuclear issue is proliferating, North Korea will persist on an attitude to negotiate with the U.S. Furthermore, North Korea and the U.S. will follow an "action for action" principle to reach the goal of establishing North Korea-U.S. military communication and abolish the economic sanctions within Bush's term.

The Institute also predicted that on the idea of reforming relations with the U.S., they have extended various invitations and made diplomatic visits. Also, they have attempted to maintain their strategic stance to pressure the U.S. with their mediating process with China and Russia on the nuclear issue.

However, it also revealed that "North Korea cannot shrug off the concern that China and Russia are threats to their regime. Thus, they have kept diplomatic relations with China and Russia to a certain extent and will continue to work to develop the diplomatic relations".

Also, the Institute explained, "With these limitations, North Korea has dealt with Vietnam as a cooperating country in a relatively free way and will expand diplomatic activity with Vietnam".

Internally, North Korea is predicted to "solve the three tasks of food, shelter and clothing and changing the fiscal and monetary policy to execute such a new economic reform. With the expansion of luring foreign investors, they will follow procedures to reform and open without slogans."

However, the Institute predicted that the residents will limit the market activity and return to the basic occupations in each level so it will recover the "Our Socialist" economic regime and regulations.

Regarding North-South relations, with the new administration in the South, the South Korean government will follow appropriate policies based on the policy of the new government.

The Institute claimed, "Through the continual practical objectives gained through the North-South cooperation, they will continue to maintain the existing frame. North Korea will show the attitude of continuing to participate unconditionally in several kinds of meetings with the South to follow through with the current administration's promises on the cooperation measures."

However, it is analyzed that if the current government strengthens a negative or lukewarm policy with the North-South cooperation issue and forms a military threat, there may be a formation of a "Strong Dual Front" with the continual or halted talks.

Among all this, to secure the authority in the North-South dialogue and form a military tension along with internal debate in the South Korean society, there is also possibility to enact militaristic threatening activity in a practical manner.

The Institute pointed out that "With the negotiating of the missile issue, they cannot eliminate the possibility to have the U.S. convince the South Korean government. It seems that the Geneva North-U.S. negotiation and the dialogue between the restart of the North and South are opposite aspects."

The Institute also claimed that "There is a possibility that North Korea will restart a policy toward South Korea regarding the next general election. North Korea will pray that the incumbent and opposing party along with conservative/liberal debate in the policy toward North Korea and the nuclear issue will spread. They want to form militaristic tensions and add such responsibility to the Grand National Party and the new government.
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