[imText1]The Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS, Chancellor Lee Ju Heum) forecasted that in 1~2 years time when North Korea endures international sanctions and another “march of suffering,” North Korea will attempt to strategically use its official nuclear armaments.,”
A report by the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security “2007 Prospects for International Relations” released on the 8th claimed “In comparison to the past, North Korea’s society is notably relaxed and the peoples loyalty to the system deteriorating” and “For the protection of its regime, North Korea may block the deteriorating loyalty of its people and power, by seeking a second ‘march of suffering’ to enforce greater control.”
The report contended “Compared to the first ‘march of suffering’ 10 years ago, North Korea’s society and economic situation is more fragile today” and “If North Korea persists with a nuclear armaments policy, international pressure towards the North will only intensify and ultimately end in increased regime instability.”
◆ Issue of North Korea’s nukes = “North Korea is resisting international pressure by pursuing a ‘march of suffering,’ hence it is likely that nuclear armaments as an accomplished fact will have to be accepted.” The report forecasted “It appears that North Korea will attempt to make a political agreement as it claims that it will not threaten the U.S. with the prepared nuclear armaments it possesses (excluding the weapons used on the Korean Peninsula).”
Regarding the six party talks, the report predicted “The international community will open another 1~2 talks to confirm North Korea’s intentions and in the case North Korea tries to gain more time, greater pressure will be implemented and an attempt made to redirect North Korea’s attitude.”
However, in the case North Korea erroneously responds by taking a risk such as pursuing an additional nuclear experiment, it was analyzed that “the atmosphere around the negotiations on the North’s nuclear issue will cool and while the demand of greater sanctions will be initiated, a robust Security Council sanctions resolution will probably be passed.”
Further, the report predicted that North Korea will make efforts to break the anti-North Korea resistance created amongst the international society following the nuclear experiment.
“North Korea will stress national assistance toward South Korea while trying to break a collaboration of South Korea-U.S.-Japan mutual assistance. North Korea will try to make China and Russia act as North Korea’s spokesperson by provoking their competition to advocate the reinforcement of N. Korea’s position.”
◆ Issue of successor = The report also suggested that discussions on the next successor will continue to surface in 2007 “Looking back, Kim Il Song was 62 years old when Kim Jong Il was nominated as the next successor in 1974. Undoubtedly today, Kim Jong Il at 64 years will be considering his next successor” and revealed “Similarly, 30 years back, we observed movements within North Korea such as the reorganization of power, strengthening of ideology and a shift in generation.
“Though common sense assumes that one of Kim Jong Il’s three sons will inherit his power, these three candidates are still only in their 20’s and 30’s and unlike Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, they lack individual leadership and charisma, and are not being recognized as strong leaders” the report claimed
Furthermore, the report stated “A great amount of time will be required to educate the sons on outshining authorities and military officials and building a firm foundation that demonstrates that they can integrate a society” and predicted “Since the next successor has yet to be decided, for the time being it is likely that the successor will not be made official.”
On the other hand “In Kim Il Song’s situation, there was a time his brother Kim Yoyng Joo acted as the tentative successor until Kim Jong Il’s position was made official” the report stated and further analyzed “Until Kim Jong Il’s successor is made official, there is a possibility that a tentative successor will be nominated.”
◆ Economic issue = On the position of economics the report surmised that “though economic development measures include the element, market economy, it will still be difficult to restore North Korea’s economy” indicating that North Korea’s overall declining economic situation would continue.
The report analyzed “With the destruction of industrial foundations, the industrial structure is backwardly modeling an underdeveloped country and though the nation recently showed increased development with foreign support, it can be deemed that the nation will not be able to continue to develop its power.”
In addition, the report claimed “As wages do not increase in accordance to inflation, the gap between the wealthy and poor will only worsen. In particular, feelings of deprivation will increase amongst the middle class, and discontent amongst the people regarding economic development will also rise.”
The report continued to say that amidst these times of economic turmoil and spread of corruption, social issues such as defecting will surface resulting in increased control of society. In particular, the report forecasted that efforts would be made for a defector nonproliferation treaty.
“Considerations have to be made that the defector issue may severely influence the society as a whole and that through measures such as relieving punishment against defectors, North Korea may lean towards pushing for a defector issue nonproliferation treaty” the report stated and added “Accordingly, each people’s mobilization movement and news reports, will continue to strengthen its education through propaganda, schools and social organizations.
