According to experts at a recent
conference, if Kim Jong Eun continues to hold on to the current dictatorship,
it is highly anticipated to contribute to instability of the political system in North Korea.
At an event titled, “North Korea’s Strategy on the South and
South Korea’s Response,” hosted
by the SIGK and Sookmyung Women’s University Institute
of Security Studies on December 5th, Kim Young Hwan, senior researcher of
Network for North Korean Democracy and Human Rights [NKnet], stated, “Kim Jong Eun has been pushing reforms and policies geared toward
opening up, but apart from that, the likelihood he will attempt to preserve the
power of the regime and strengthen his dictatorship is high.”
Kim added that while Kim Jong Eun is young
and attempting to emulate Kim Jong Il’s tactical
strategies, he lacks the same level of command and stability. “Conditions are ever-present that he may initiate dangerous threats
stemming from his desire to command the authority of an all-powerful leader,” Kim pointed out.
To readily confront this situation, Kim
called on the South Korean government to implement more aggressive policies on
North Korea. “There is movement in the Kim Jong Eun era
related to reform and opening, and that must be supported, but what we really
need to be more involved in is active preparation for the establishment of a
new government in the event of a collapse of Kim Jong Eun’s regime,” he said.
To mitigate overall chaos when that time
arrives, he urged for a methodically prepared manual to combat the chief factors
contributing to anxiety over security issues. While dialogue and exchange with
North Korea are important, once the changes afoot domestically lead to the
eventual collapse of the standing system, a road map of plans and provisions
will be required.
Kim went on to predict that the future of
inter-Korean relations will continue to be rife with uncertainty in the Kim
Jong Eun era. “Kim Jong Eun will continue to incite
crisis on the Korean Peninsula and employ it as a tool to maintain the current
system,” he explained. “North
Korea needs some degree of tension between itself and the South, creating a
fundamental limitation to developing better relations between the two.”
As to how to improve this, Kim stated, “When seeking to resolve inter-Korean relations, political
flexibility is paramount, as is the adoption of policies that actively expedite
change in North Korea.” He added, “We need to rethink North Korea policy based on its collapse being an
important scenario that may occur.”
Yoo Dong Yeol, director of the Korean
Institute of Liberal Democracy, also spoke at the event, discussing issues
related to pro-North factions operating in the South. “Pro-North
Korean forces permeated circles of workers and academics at first, but from the
mid-1980s, their influence began to seep into the art, media, and religious
worlds as well,” adding that the ruling and opposition
parties must penetrate political circles and create a broader network to combat
this issue.
“Pro-North powers did not operate
independently, rather, they worked with North Korean networks and international
leftist organizations, expanding their sphere of activity on a global scale,” he explained. “These activities by
pro-North forces generate adverse effects in society.”
He concluded with four methods aimed at
resolving problems stemming from pro-North forces: ▲minimization
of social inconsistencies contradictions in every sector ▲actively make known the true practices of pro-North forces ▲ resolute law enforcement for criminal activities, and ▲ reinforcing national security systems.
