“Possibilities for a Sudden Change of Events in North Korea on the Rise”

[imText1]After North Korea launched its missiles, with influences from the U.N. Security Council resolution and the U.S-Japan, North Korea sanctions and movements around the world have intensified which has led to an analysis suggesting the rising possibilities that North Korea is experiencing change.

At the 21 Century National Development Institute seminar on the 20th, Professor Yoo Ho Yeol of the Department of North Koreanology, Korea University asserted in his address “Following the missile issue and North Korea’s deteriorating economic situation, the system is on the verge of collapse and as a result, the possibilities for a sudden change of events in North Korea is on the rise. This essentially signifies a change to the system.”

Co-hosted by the 21 Century National Development Institute (NDI, Director Park Kwan Yong) and Korea University’s Institute of North Koreanology (Associate Dean Nam Sung Wook) a conference will be held on the 20th with experts discussing issues on “North Korea’s sudden change and our response.”

Professor Yoo said that as changes are made to the image of North Korea’s leader, coups created, revolutions and revolts expanding from within, “If such groups in opposition to Kim Jong Il do exist, it is the military authorities who will become the most powerful strength.”

He said, “In any system, excluding the military, it is rare that a government is challenged with force. In the case a system is faced with such rebellion, through firm and immediate action the military would repress the movements so that further advancements or change could not occur.”

However, Professor Yoo said “In North Korea little has been revealed in regards to a precedent triumph of a military coup.” He revealed “In reality, it would be very difficult for a large scale coup conspiracy to exist.”

Furthermore, Professor Yoo said “We cannot expect an underground anti-system to have enough power to be able to replace or convert the current regime, however it could provide the foundation for a change in events from within.”

He stressed “As international pressures on North Korea’s human rights elevate and as individuals find hope and potential to incite counterproposals to the system, it is possible that determined objectives and non-violent resistant movements could proliferate throughout the society.”

Participants of the conference argued that after changes to North Korea, issues such as the South and North Korean economy, military disorder and rioters may occur. Also, they stressed the importance of mutual cooperation amongst the international community and the Korea-U.S. alliance in regards to this issue.

Baek Seung Joo, Chief Researcher of the North Korean Studies Division for the Korean Institute for Defense Analysis revealed “Even if a sudden change did occur in North Korea, in a more exclusive and superior position, we could not intervene. In truth, based on the U.S, China and other related countries it would only be possible with the support of international collaboration.”

Particularly, he stressed “If changes in the North Korea threatens our safety or it gets to a point where North Korean authorities lose control of mass weaponry, the military needs to be ready to counteract this response. For this reason, we need to maintain close relations with the U.S.”

At the conference, it is planned that President Euh Yoon Dae and Emeritus Professor Kim Dong Kyu of Korea University, Peter Beck Northeast Asia Project Director of the International Crisis Group (ICG), professor Andrei Lankov of The Australian National University, Representative Kim Sung Min from Free North Korea Broadcasting and others will partake in the event.