[imText1]With the exception of war or a massive natural disaster, it is unlikely that substantive change in North Korea would create huge outflows of refugees. That was the conclusion reached by a senior researcher with the Institute for National Security Strategy, Hyeon Seong Il, at a seminar hosted by Korea Policy Research Center and the National Development Institute on October 15th.
“If we overstate the probability of mass refugee flows or get caught up in a mentality of worrying about the harm that such a thing could do, we could end up taking the prevention of sudden situations or [North Korean] systemic security as the fundamentals of our North Korea policy,” Hyeon cautioned,
“Rather than conflict between two massive factions of a sort that might precipitate a large exodus of refugees, there is a general relationship of antagonism between the minority and the majority [in North Korea],” he went on to assert.
“North Korean policy to date has shown us that, in the event that the winner is the minority, the large-scale exit of the majority can be deterred,” he said. Conversely, “If the current majority were to emerge the victor then the minority could leave in order to avoid revenge attacks. However, that would not require a massive exodus.”
“The main conflict elements in North Korea are chronic food shortages, the corruption of those holding power, and the development and threat of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction,” he said. “All are the responsibility of the Kim Jong Eun regime. Ultimately, ‘the stabilization of the North Korean regime’ means overlooking the continuous production and amplification of these causes of instability and conflict,” he pointed out.
Therefore, “Both South Korea and the international community must continually entice the Kim Jong Eun regime to remove the roots of the latent contradictions and conflicts in North Korean society, thus changing it,” he went on, reiterating a common theme: “Rather than sudden change in North Korea, it is a more desirable path to bring about stability and peace on the peninsula by enticing North Korea to choose the same path as China of its own accord.”
