{"id":62541,"date":"2025-02-26T14:56:46","date_gmt":"2025-02-26T05:56:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dailynk.com\/english\/?p=62541"},"modified":"2026-04-05T15:37:36","modified_gmt":"2026-04-05T06:37:36","slug":"north-korea-2025-between-domestic-control-global-gambles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dailynk.com\/english\/north-korea-2025-between-domestic-control-global-gambles\/","title":{"rendered":"North Korea in 2025: Between domestic control and global gambles"},"content":{"rendered":"

The tradition of North Korean leaders delivering major New Year speeches ended in 2020. Instead, Kim Jong Un now announces policy and budget decisions through two key meetings: the year-end plenary session of the Central Committee and the January meeting of the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA).<\/p>\n

Following this pattern, the Eighth Central Committee’s 11th plenary session convened from December 23-27, while the 14th SPA held its 12th session from Jan. 22-23. Both bodies addressed seven agenda items. The Institute for Far Eastern Studies, a leading research center on North Korea, subsequently organized an academic conference on Feb. 4 titled “An Assessment of the North Korean Situation in 2024 and Projections for 2025.”<\/p>\n

Key Developments from Recent Policy Meetings<\/h4>\n

In these meetings, North Korea characterized 2024 as a year of “confrontation between the bloc of autonomy and the bloc of hegemony.” The regime acknowledged facing “major obstacles” from flood damage, “hostile forces’ warmongering,” and sanctions, while highlighting achievements in its “people-first principle” and military development.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead to 2025, North Korea emphasized three main points:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. The year’s significance as the final year of the current five-year plan, coinciding with the 80th anniversary of Korea’s liberation and the Workers’ Party founding<\/li>\n
  2. Focus on education and regional economic development<\/li>\n
  3. An ultra-hardline strategy toward the United States, though specific details remain undisclosed<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Notably, the SPA session, held after Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, was primarily technical in nature. Kim Jong Un’s absence and the lack of discussion on foreign policy or defense matters suggests a deliberate approach to avoid sensitive topics.<\/p>\n

    Critical Factors Shaping 2025<\/h4>\n

    Several internal and external factors will likely influence North Korea’s trajectory in 2025:<\/p>\n

    On the internal front, 2025 marks the final year of the five-year economic and military development plan, as well as the second year of both the “20\u00d710 regional development policy” and “two hostile states” policy. The year also brings significant anniversaries, including 80 years since liberation from Japanese rule and the Party’s founding. Additionally, the regime will oversee the election of 15th SPA members while preparing for the Ninth Party Congress, expected in January 2026.<\/p>\n

    External factors that will shape the year include North Korea’s ongoing military involvement in Russia’s Ukraine war and the Trump administration’s approach to both North Korea and the Ukraine conflict. Any potential dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea could significantly impact various domains, from nuclear issues to politics, military affairs, and the economy.<\/p>\n

    Inter-Korean relations will likely remain minimal due to North Korea’s “two hostile states” principle, military commitments in Ukraine, and its response to political developments in South Korea, including President Yoon’s martial law declaration and impeachment.<\/p>\n

    Strategic Outlook<\/h4>\n

    Kim Jong Un’s 2024 decisions\u2014particularly the “two hostile states” principle, departure from traditional reunification policy, and Ukraine war involvement\u2014represented significant risks. However, 2025 may present opportunities for these gambles to pay off.<\/p>\n

    North Korea’s likely strategies include:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Solidifying the “two hostile states” theory<\/li>\n
    2. Leveraging its Ukraine war involvement<\/li>\n
    3. Exploring dialogue with the United States while maintaining distance from South Korea<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Denuclearization appears increasingly unlikely given recent developments. The regime has passed legislation declaring its nuclear weapon state status, issued orders to strengthen nuclear capabilities, and revealed uranium enrichment facilities. This stance is further reinforced by North Korea’s strategic alignment with China and Russia, its participation in the Ukraine war, and continued ICBM development and provocations.<\/p>\n

      Internal Focus and Domestic Priorities<\/h4>\n

      Despite external relationships, Kim Jong Un’s primary focus remains domestic. Key priorities include:<\/p>\n