{"id":58734,"date":"2024-03-20T10:51:50","date_gmt":"2024-03-20T01:51:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.dailynk.com\/english\/?p=58734"},"modified":"2026-04-05T15:21:53","modified_gmt":"2026-04-05T06:21:53","slug":"what-we-know-about-kim-ju-ae-chances-succession-so-far","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dailynk.com\/english\/what-we-know-about-kim-ju-ae-chances-succession-so-far\/","title":{"rendered":"What we know about Kim Ju Ae’s chances for succession so far"},"content":{"rendered":"

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was accompanied by his young daughter Kim Ju Ae at several public events, including the opening of a greenhouse and a training exercise by special forces paratroopers, on Mar. 15. The last time his daughter attended a public event was on Military Foundation Day, on Feb. 8.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Korean Central News Agency <\/span>did not specifically mention<\/span><\/a> that Ju Ae had attended the event, as it did for key officials such as her father or Premier Kim Tok-hun. But it did print photos of father and daughter while mentioning that \u201cthe great persons of guidance, together with cadres of the Party, the government and the military, went round the farm.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

News media in South Korea and abroad subsequently quoted North Korean experts as saying that \u201cthe word <\/span>hyangdo<\/span><\/i> [translated here as \u2018guidance\u2019] has typically been used about the supreme leader and his heirs\u201d and reported that the choice of words \u201cdemonstrates that Kim Ju Ae has definitely become a potential heir.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

One year and four months have already passed since Kim Ju Ae was first presented to the North Korean public. In that time, a large number of experts and news outlets both in Korea and overseas have aired speculation that she may be Kim Jong Un\u2019s heir in light of the eye-popping titles and treatment she has been given.<\/span><\/p>\n

But my opinion is that while we should remain open to that possibility, the evidence for deeming Ju Ae the heir remains highly insufficient in light of structural and fundamental factors such as age, titles, customs, culture and institutions. As such, I still think it is far too soon to jump to any conclusions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Instead, I continue to emphasize the likelihood that Kim Ju Ae is supposed to serve two concurrent roles that I compare to the cinematic terms \u201ccameo\u201d and \u201cintro.\u201d She serves as a \u201ccameo\u201d to draw the attention of domestic and foreign audiences to Kim\u2019s resolution to maintain a nuclear arsenal and his interest in the safety of future generations, and as an \u201cintro\u201d to instill in North Korean society a belief in the everlasting rule of what is called the \u201cMt. Paektu bloodline,\u201d referring to the Kim dynasty.<\/span><\/p>\n

The South Korean government\u2019s official assessment<\/b><\/p>\n

As the debate over Kim Ju Ae\u2019s status heated up at the beginning of this year, the South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS) took the unusual step of submitting a written response to the National Assembly\u2019s Intelligence Committee on Jan. 2 in an attempt to restore calm. \u201cKim Ju Ae appears to be a likely heir, at least for the present, given her appearances and the treatment she is receiving. But since Kim Jong Un is still young, with no major health issues, and because there are many variables, we are watching the situation closely while keeping open all possibilities,\u201d the NIS said in that document.<\/span><\/p>\n

This circumspect and open-minded attitude adopted by the South Korean government\u2019s highest intelligence agency is natural and commendable. Even assuming that there are noticeable signs that Kim Ju Ae may be the assumed heir, the question of naming an heir is a lengthy process, and we should therefore avoid any hasty assumptions. That process would involve five or six separate stages, including deliberation and decision, public and private preparations for succession, internal naming of the heir and involvement in policy-making, official declaration of the heir, joint rule, and handover of power.<\/span><\/p>\n

Currently, we are only at the beginning of the first stage of that process, and numerous variables are still ahead of us.<\/span><\/p>\n

And so when the claim is made in certain quarters that Kim Ju Ae has been named heir, I tend to regard that not as a multifaceted, comprehensive assessment that connects the dots to arrive at the whole, but rather as a hot take that reads way too much into a few scattered points of data.<\/span><\/p>\n

My personal assessment<\/b><\/p>\n

At the time of Kim Ju Ae\u2019s first appearance, I wrote a column in which I argued that (1) Kim Jong Un had staged the whole event, (2) Kim Ju Ae\u2019s role was that of a \u201ccameo\u201d or \u201cintro,\u201d and (3) the critical issue was not the daughter, but the provocations involving the illegal development of long-range strategic missiles. I also counseled the international community to focus on tightening sanctions on North Korea and warned that focusing on the daughter would amount to falling for Kim Jong Un\u2019s scheme.<\/span><\/p>\n

In this article, we will review the trends witnessed over the past year and four months, which I hope will help readers draw their own conclusions. But I should also make clear in advance that this analysis will be based solely on information in the public record, deductions and my personal experience, since I am not in a position to stumble across a \u201csmoking gun.\u201d While I cannot guarantee that my arguments are correct, I do think they will provide valuable food for thought.<\/span><\/p>\n

Signs that Kim Ju Ae may be the heir apparent<\/b><\/p>\n

A considerable number of experts offer three distinct reasons for regarding Kim Ju Ae as the intended heir: her public appearances, the titles and honorifics used for her, and the respectful treatment she enjoys (suggesting a cult of personality).<\/span><\/p>\n

(1) Public appearances<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Most of Kim Ju Ae\u2019s public appearances (22 of 26 thus far) involve accompanying her father on visits to military sites, such as an ICBM test site. She is gradually paying more visits to sites connected to the economy. In the future, she is likely to visit revolutionary battlefields on Mt. Paektu and attend events linked to the cult of personality so as to reinforce her image as part of the Mt. Paektu bloodline.*<\/span><\/p>\n

(2) Titles and honorifics<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

The titles and honorifics given to Kim Ju Ae have gradually been elevated, from \u201cbeloved\u201d to \u201crespected\u201d and then to \u201cprecious.\u201d In addition, there are also reports that she is being described by the terms \u201cmorning star\u201d and \u201cgeneral,\u201d which are generally reserved for the supreme leader and his heirs, in unconfirmed lecture materials being used inside North Korea. (One such document reportedly said, \u201cThe future of our status as a space power will be further illuminated by the lady general, the morning star of Joseon.\u201d)<\/span><\/p>\n

\"missile,
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, accompanied by his daughter Kim Ju-ae, led a field tour of an “important military vehicle production plant,” according to Rodong Sinmun on Jan. 5. The newspaper also unveiled a launch pad vehicle (TEL) carrying a cylindrical tube for the Hwasong-18, a new solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). (Rodong Sinmun-News1)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Furthermore, North Korean official coverage of the ribbon-cutting ceremony at the Kangdong Greenhouse Farm on Mar. 15 referred to the two Kims as \u201cgreat persons of guidance.\u201d But it is also possible that such expressions are designed to express respect for the Mt. Paektu bloodline or to pique interest in the leadership both at home and abroad.<\/span><\/p>\n

Some points to bear in mind in regard to the greenhouse visit are that (1) Kim Ju Ae was not mentioned separately as in the past, (2) the title was used in the plural and not the singular, and (3) only related photographs were printed. And in contrast with coverage of the two Kims\u2019 attendance at the greenhouse ground-breaking, Kim Ju Ae was not mentioned either directly or indirectly in an article about their attendance at a training session for paratroopers from the special forces.<\/span><\/p>\n

(3) Respectful treatment<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

A remarkable cult of personality is said to be forming around Kim Ju Ae. She had a seat of honor at a military parade on Military Foundation Day in February 2023, and new slogans have been coined about \u201cKim Ju Ae\u2019s white horse\u201d and \u201cdefend Kim Jong Un to the death, protect the Mt. Paektu bloodline to the death.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

At a military parade for North Korea\u2019s founding anniversary in September, Park Jong-chon, the number one figure in the North Korean military, was witnessed kneeling down to speak to Kim Ju Ae. In November, a commemorative stamp bearing the photograph of Kim Jong Un and Kim Ju Ae was issued on the first anniversary of the successful launch of the Hwasong-17 missiles, which is where Kim Ju Ae made her first appearance. The day of the missile launch was also designated as a public holiday.<\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s not all. When the two Kims visited the North Korean Air Force Command in November, the daughter shook hands with the military leaders and received their salutes even before her father. When the <\/span>Rodong Sinmun<\/span><\/i> covered Kim Jong Un\u2019s visit to a factory of missile transporter vehicles on Jan. 5, it began the report by devoting a separate line to the title of Kim\u2019s daughter before mentioning senior party officials such as Kim Yo Jong and Jo Yong Won.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span>(4) Related laws and institutions<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Kim Ju Ae is a figure who not only fits within the Ten Principles for the Establishment of a Monolithic Ideological System<\/a>, which states that leadership must be passed down to members of the Mt. Paektu bloodline, but also to the theories of succession I delineate below. In neither place is any distinction made between men and women.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n