After defining the inter-Korean relationship at a year-end party meeting as “between two hostile states,” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un stoked war fever by speaking at a recent meeting of the Supreme People’s Assembly about “completely occupying, subjugating, and reclaiming” the ROK. But some inside North Korea say the country is not in a position to wage an immediate war.<\/p>\n
“While it could be said that we are prepared, at least to some extent, to [attack] Seoul and Tokyo, we can’t hit Washington with our current weapons systems. We can’t start a war without being able to hit the US,” said a source familiar with the situation in the North Korean military, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons.<\/p>\n
“Before we go to war, we first need multiple re-entry vehicles or EMP [electromagnetic pulse] devices,” said another source, who stated flatly that there is no chance of war breaking out any time soon.<\/p>\n
Kim devoted a substantial portion of his policy speech at the Supreme People’s Assembly to ratcheting up tensions, mentioning the word “war” no fewer than 23 times.<\/p>\n
“War will terribly destroy the entity called the Republic of Korea and put an end to its existence. And it will inflict an unimaginably crushing defeat on the U.S. Our military capabilities, already in readiness, are being rapidly updated,” Kim threatened in the speech, according to the English translation published by North Korean state media.<\/p>\n
In addition, the North Korean leadership told senior cadres and military commanders after the year-end party meeting that “war could break out at any time” and ordered them to complete war preparations this year, even though the five-year plan for developing weapons systems is not due to be completed until late next year.<\/p>\n
By stoking tensions with direct mentions of “war,” Kim’s apparent goal is twofold: internally, he hopes to strengthen discipline in the military and speed up weapons development; and externally, he seeks to gain leverage in negotiations with the U.S.<\/p>\n
“There is a generational change in the Korean People’s Army, but no one wants to serve in the military these days. [Kim’s words] are a wake-up call for the army and a signal to the defense industry and defense science sector to speed up development,” one of the sources told Daily NK.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, discussions about negotiations with the U.S. appear to be ongoing inside North Korea.<\/p>\n
“Our position is that we can sit down for talks if, as we desire, the U.S. and South Korea take a peaceful approach without objecting to our actions and without bothering us with human rights or sovereignty issues. This has been discussed again recently, and the foreign ministry department in charge of U.S. negotiations is working hard [in preparations],” said a source inside the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK).<\/p>\n
Ultimately, North Korea’s calculation behind ratcheting up military tensions and pushing for faster weapons development is to acquire strategic weapons before the U.S. presidential election and to gain more leverage in future negotiations with the U.S.<\/p>\n
“A geometric expansion of our nuclear stockpile is a major issue under discussion. This will be reviewed within the year,” the WPK source said.<\/p>\n