{"id":31018,"date":"2015-06-22T16:22:06","date_gmt":"2015-06-22T07:22:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/en.dailynk.com\/en\/?p=31018"},"modified":"2020-01-17T08:18:09","modified_gmt":"2020-01-16T23:18:09","slug":"power-slipping-through-kim-jong-un","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dailynk.com\/english\/power-slipping-through-kim-jong-un\/","title":{"rendered":"Power slipping through Kim Jong Un’s fingers?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Is Kim Jong Un<\/span>\u2019s
\ngrip on the throne secure? Will he be able to follow in the footsteps of Kim Il
\nSung and Kim Jong Il by stretching his reign beyond the ten year
\nbenchmark? <\/span><\/p>\n

There are no simple answers to this
\nquestion. In fact, it<\/span>\u2019s difficult to get a handle on
\nthe state of the regime in the present moment, let alone predict what sorts of
\ndevelopments tomorrow may bring. This is a central characteristic of a
\ntotalitarian regime; widespread and systemic changes can happen in the blink of
\nan eye. <\/span><\/p>\n

It<\/span>\u2019s difficult for
\na liberal democracy to go bust in a single moment. That<\/span>\u2019s because liberal democracies are composed of self sustaining interlocking systems that support their continuation. Even if one of these pillars
\ncrumbles, the structure remains intact. Totalitarian governments are not built
\nin this way. Just like the Soviet Union or Romania, these kinds of governments
\nare liable to collapse at any time. That<\/span>\u2019s what makes
\nit so difficult to forecast the future of a totalitarian regime. <\/span><\/p>\n

Most predictions about the future are made
\non the basis of past observations. These predictions are prone to forecasting
\nthe continuation of future trends, which makes them inherently conservative.
\nThat<\/span>\u2019s why we often see experts reacting to a sudden
\nchange by saying, <\/span>\u201cwe never could have predicted that.<\/span>\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

Events transpired in this exact fashion
\nshortly after the 1997 IMF foreign exchange crisis in South Korea. Out of all
\nof Korea<\/span>\u2019s esteemed economics experts, not even one
\nperson was able to foresee the impending crisis.  A small group of
\nex-government officials sounded warning bells, but the deputy prime minister
\nfor financial affairs responded that Korea<\/span>\u2019s economy
\nwas <\/span>\u201cfundamentally rugged and durable.<\/span>\u201d The minister<\/span>\u2019s brain must have been teeming
\nwith conservative thoughts at that time. <\/span><\/p>\n

Furthermore, unlike the nebulous field of
\ninternational security, the field of economics has a host of facts and figures
\nsuch as international interest rates, cost of living, oil prices, the trade
\ndeficit, etc. to use as helpful real-time gauges. Despite having these
\nwonderful tools at their disposal, they were still unable to detect and avoid
\nthe financial crisis.    <\/span><\/p>\n

If you look at things from this angle, it<\/span>\u2019s no laughing matter. Every time a life threatening incident [e.g.
\nJang Song Thaek, Ri Yong Ho, Hyon Yong Chol, etc.] related to North Korea
\narises, people are quick to point that fact out. They say, <\/span>\u201cNorth Korea does not exhibit any predictable trends with regards to
\nits attacks,<\/span>\u201d or, <\/span>\u201cWe couldn<\/span>\u2019t detect any symptoms which foreshadowed this.<\/span>\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

This kind of remark is generally infused
\nwith the sentiment that a military attack on the south will come with a warning
\nsign. In other words, <\/span>\u201csince we don<\/span>\u2019t see any blaring signs right now, everyone can just relax.<\/span>\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

To be perfectly honest, I laugh inwardly
\nevery time I hear that kind of foolishness. The execution of Jang Song Thaek
\nitself displayed a trend particular to North Korea. Couldn<\/span>\u2019t we call the appearance of mask wearing assailants to the Korean
\nWorkers<\/span>\u2019 Party [KWP] Central Committee building just
\none iteration of a trend particular to North Korea? <\/span><\/p>\n

The moment we catch wind of the news that
\nmask-wielding assailants entered the Workers<\/span>\u2019 Party
\nbuilding or that the North attacked the South, it<\/span>\u2019s
\nalready too late. To compare with the 1997 financial crisis, it was impossible
\nto avoid the impending crisis once it was detected. And if we look to
\nhistorical precedents, security-related catastrophes tend to flare up much more
\nsuddenly than financial emergencies. <\/span><\/p>\n

Therefore, even though it can be fruitless work
\nto make predictions about matters related to conflict and security, it might be
\nprudent to take a second look at the idea that North Korea is fundamentally <\/span>\u201cstrange<\/span>\u201d and <\/span>\u201csuspicious.<\/span>\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

Considering the recent news that defense
\nchief Hyon Yong Chol has been publicly executed, Korean Central News Agency
\n(KCNA) broadcast a warning that <\/span>\u201call traitorous
\nsects and groups will be tirelessly purged.<\/span>\u201d
\n Korean Central Television (KCTV) continuously aired <\/span>\u201cThe Cutting Winds of Baekdu,<\/span>\u201d in which the
\nnarrator reminds viewers of the fate that awaited purported traitors in August
\nof 1956 and asks, <\/span>\u201cWhat will come of traitorous
\ncitizens who choose to betray their nation by imitating the likes of Bak Heon
\nYeong, Lee Seung Yeop, and Choi Chang Ik?<\/span>\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

Was there a comparable usage of KCTV during
\nKim Jong Il<\/span>\u2019s reign? If there perhaps was an incident
\ninvolving a traitorous sect in his time, wouldn<\/span>\u2019t he be
\nmore likely to cover it up instead of using it in propaganda? <\/span><\/p>\n

When you analyze the North Korean media,
\nyou have to interpret things with an <\/span>\u201copposite<\/span>\u201d or <\/span>\u201cupside down<\/span>\u201d
\nlens. In 1990, during a transitional stage in North Korean history, the media
\nproclaimed, <\/span>\u201cOur republic has no food shortage problem.<\/span>\u201d In 1998 after getting approval from the UN, North Korea accepted
\naid shipments of relief rice from the international community without ever
\nbeing subject to an investigation. <\/span><\/p>\n

Accordingly, we have to interpret North
\nKorean media statements that say, <\/span>\u201cWe have no food
\nshortage problem,<\/span>\u201d to actually mean, <\/span>\u201cBecause we have such a bad food shortage<\/span>\u2026\u201d
\nIf they didn<\/span>\u2019t have a food problem, there<\/span>\u2019d be no reason to deny permission of entry to UN
\ninvestigators. <\/span><\/p>\n

There are many episodes from history which
\nillustrate that state pronunciations from communist totalitarian countries
\ncannot be trusted and must be read <\/span>\u201cbackwardly.<\/span>\u201d There is no reason to list them all out here. <\/span><\/p>\n

For this reason, we must use our lens to
\ninterpret incoming news about the North. For example, after North Korea<\/span>\u2019s test of their submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the
\nnational defense policy spokesperson said, <\/span>\u201cit<\/span>\u2019s been a long time since we achieved successful miniaturization on
\nour nuclear delivery systems.<\/span>\u201d But we should interpret
\nthis to mean, <\/span>\u201cin order to reach that stage, it will
\ntake a little bit more time.<\/span>\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

If by some chance, North Korea really did
\nachieve full miniaturization, would they be likely to announce it? Considering
\nit<\/span>\u2019s a matter of top secrecy and they could maintain an
\nadvantage by keeping it that way, the odds are slim they<\/span>\u2019d let anyone know. <\/span><\/p>\n

When you look at things this way, what goal
\ncould North Korea have in using the traitorous sects as propaganda? Is it
\nlegitimately the case that these groups are causing havoc in the country? Or
\nare they merely using this episode as a means to unify the people and whip up
\nloyalty? <\/span><\/p>\n

Bak Heon Yeong and Lee Seun Yeob are former
\nSouth Korean Workers<\/span>\u2019 Party members. Kim Il Sung blamed
\nand executed them for being responsible for the June 25th War, known in the
\nbroader international community as the Korean War. Choi Chang Ik and Kim Du
\nBong were together at the core of the Yeon Ahn group. Kim Du Bong became the
\nvictim of a purge during the June 25th War and Choi Chang Ik, who was once
\ndeputy prime minister, was demoted to a position related to the farming of pigs
\nin the aftermath of “The August Faction Incident.” He stayed at that post for the
\nremainder of his life.<\/span><\/p>\n

But The August Faction Incident of 1956
\nhappened over 60 years ago. Why is this issue being brought up in the media now
\nas if it is a new development? The heart of the problem is hidden in the answer
\nto this difficult question. <\/span><\/p>\n

The August Faction Incident was the largest
\nconspiracy to occur since Kim Il Sung rose to power on September 9th,
\n1948. <\/span><\/p>\n

The <\/span>\u201cKapsan
\nIncident<\/span>\u201d occurred from 1966-67, but even this was
\nsmall potatoes when compared to the August Faction Incident. During the Kapsan
\nIncident, a few different groups expressed their dissatisfaction over Kim Il
\nSung<\/span>\u2019s governance, but the August Faction Incident was
\na genuine attempt to topple the ruler. As a result of their efforts, it was
\nentirely possible that Kim Il Sung might have lost his grip on the throne. So,
\ndoes that mean that the current incident in North Korea involving <\/span>\u201ctraitors<\/span>\u201d is comparable to the 1956 episode?
\nDoes that mean we should compare Jang Song Thaek and Hyeon Yeong Cheol to
\nfigures like Bak Heon Yeong, Lee Seung 
\nYeop, and Choi Chang Ik? If that were the case, then Kim Jong Un<\/span>\u2019s security on the throne would be tenuous indeed. <\/span><\/p>\n

However, if we apply our lens to
\ninterpreting this, is the current incident fundamentally different from The
\nAugust Faction Incident? In other words, even if we were 100% sure that Kim
\nJong Un<\/span>\u2019s power base was secure, how would we interpret
\nKCTV<\/span>\u2019s continuous airing of a movie that poses the
\ndeadly serious question: <\/span>\u201cWhat will come of traitorous
\ncitizens who choose to betray their nation by imitating the likes of Bak Heon
\nYeong, Lee Seung Yeop, and Choi Chang Ik?<\/span>\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

Now, for those of us who wish to really
\nunderstand and deal with the North Korea problem, there is a need to approach
\nthis issue with a common sense tactic. <\/span><\/p>\n

If Kim Jong Un<\/span>\u2019s
\nclaims to authority were in fact secure, would there be any reason to
\ncontinuously make references to The August Faction Incident on KCTV?  If
\nhis political legitimacy was not threatened in any way, Kim Jong Un would have
\nalready traveled to China, Russia, and Indonesia. He would have already made
\nappeals for financial and diplomatic assistance from those countries. There
\nwould be absolutely no need to continue referencing past acts of betrayal on
\nKCTV. <\/span><\/p>\n

To put it bluntly, there<\/span>\u2019d be no reason for KCTV to make fools of themselves by repeating the
\nsame blunt message over and over again if Kim Jong Un had confident control of
\nthe country. At this point, we are ready to look at two hypotheses:<\/span><\/p>\n

1. When the wind blows, the leaves dance
\nabout.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. The leaves dance on their own power,
\nthereby producing wind.<\/span><\/p>\n

Which one of these makes more sense?<\/span><\/p>\n

Common knowledge tells us that number one
\nis entirely more reasonable: <\/span>\u201cWhen the wind blows, the
\nleaves dance about.<\/span>\u201d To put this into context, when the
\nwind blows (when Kim Jong Un<\/span>\u2019s power base is in
\nquestion), the leaves dance about (Jang Song Thaek and Hyon Yong Chol are
\nexecuted). <\/span><\/p>\n

Therefore, if the leaves are not dancing
\nabout, is there really any need to release a report saying as much? What would
\nbe the point? <\/span><\/p>\n

Despite this, there are those who argue
\nthat the leaves do in fact dance about on their own. These people think that
\nKim Jong Un executed Jang Song Thaek and Hyon Yong Chol merely for the purposes
\nof shoring up power, and that this is no indication that there is a pronounced
\nthreat to his power base. Of course it<\/span>\u2019s difficult to
\nrule out this kind of supposition altogether, but at very least we might
\nbenefit by examining the cause and effect of this problem a bit more carefully.
\nIf Kim Jong Un<\/span>\u2019s power base was totally secure, what
\npossible cause could he have for executing Jang Song Thaek and Hyon Yong
\nChol? <\/span><\/p>\n

To investigate this matter, it is helpful
\nto take a second look a KCNA<\/span>\u2019s December 13, 2013 report
\nwhich aired after Jang Song Thaek<\/span>\u2019s execution. If we
\nlook at the passage below, we can see that Jang Song Thaek was charged with
\nsedition at the special military tribunal by the State Security
\nDepartment. <\/span><\/p>\n

The following section consists of passages
\nfrom that transcript, including statements allegedly made by Jang Song Thaek at
\nthe tribunal.<\/span><\/p>\n

           
\n  ————————————————-<\/span><\/p>\n

Drunk from his ambition of seizing power,
\nJang Song Thaek lost the ability to make sound and sane deliberations.
\nFurthermore, had he been able to mobilize the remainder of the army, he would
\nhave been able to attempt a coup. He foolishly calculated that he<\/span>\u2019d be able to exert his evil influence on the People<\/span>\u2019s Army. <\/span><\/font><\/i><\/p>\n

At the hearing, Jang Song Thaek said, <\/span>\u201cIn spite of the fact that it would cause catastrophic damage to the
\ncountry<\/span>\u2019s economic situation and its citizens, I
\nattempted to launch a coup.<\/span>\u201d He further unveiled his
\nugly and traitorous intentions when he admitted he was the coup<\/span>\u2019s most senior leader. <\/span><\/font><\/i><\/p>\n

When speaking about the specific method of
\nundertaking this coup, Jang Song-thaek continuously repeated, <\/span>\u201cI attempted to use the military officials I had personal
\nrelationships with, such as Lee Young Ha and his followers, in order to
\nforcefully dominate them. I do not know about the recently appointed military
\nofficials, but the officials appointed in previous times have honor. I believe
\nthat even if the lives of citizens and soldiers get rougher, they will not be
\nable to be mobilized to carry out a coup. I also tried to recruit higher ups at
\nthe Ministry of People<\/span>\u2019s Security. Outside of this,
\nthere are a few other people that I tried to use as well.<\/span>\u201d <\/span><\/font><\/i><\/p>\n

When asked what Jang Song Thaek would do
\nonce he instigated the coup, he responded, <\/span>\u201cOnce I
\nexecute the coup, I do not have any firm plans set in place. But before the
\ncountry and the economy totally collapsed, I planned to concentrate all the
\neconomic institution heads and assign them to the department I was in and
\nappoint myself prime minister. After becoming prime minister, I would procure
\nenormous funds in order to try to solve the major problems that our people and
\nour army suffer from. In this way I calculated that a coup could be smoothly
\naccomplished as the people cheered me on.<\/span>\u201d   <\/span><\/font><\/i><\/p>\n

Jang Song Thaek foolishly believed the
\ndelusion that after he usurped power, he would become known as a reformer to
\nthe outside world and that foreign countries would welcome his new regime.
\n  <\/font><\/i><\/span><\/p>\n

The truth of the matter is that Jang Song
\nThaek has clearly revealed himself to be a traitorous American puppet willing
\nto go along with their policy of strategic patience in order to cause a
\ncollapse of our republic from the inside and seize supreme power. This plan to
\nutilize the most cunning and wicked methods at his disposal was hatched a long
\ntime ago, making him a traitor unmatched in his unscrupulous and scheming ways.
\n  <\/font><\/i><\/span><\/p>\n

The ugly truth of Jang Song Thaek<\/span>\u2019s traitorous, anti-national, anti-citizen crimes have thusly been
\nrevealed by the State Security Department<\/span>\u2019s special
\ntribunal.<\/span><\/font><\/i><\/p>\n

           
\n ————————————————-<\/span><\/p>\n

First, let<\/span>\u2019s try to
\nunpack this passage. It is hard to determine whether the accusations set forth
\nin the sentencing are true or not. The error range falls somewhere between
\n0-100%. Understanding the nature of North Korean media, however, we can begin
\nto parse fact from fiction. (After all, we expect bright people to make bright
\njudgments and dimwits to make dimwitted judgments). <\/span><\/p>\n

The author asserts that the truth rate of
\nthe comments made at sentencing is probably about 20%, which means that the
\nremaining 80% is a story concocted by the State Security Department<\/span>. <\/span><\/p>\n

This explains why Hyon Yong Chol was executed in the
\naftermath of Jang Song Thaek<\/span>\u2019s ouster. To put it
\nanother way, the effects of the Jang Song Thaek incident are continuously
\ndeveloping inside North Korean power politics. I<\/span>\u2019m not
\nsure if we can compare the scope of the Jang Song Thaek incident with The
\nAugust Faction Incident of 1956, but as of right now it appears as if the
\nparanoid mood which began with the July\/August of 2013 internal investigation
\nof Jang Song Thaek has continued to this day. <\/span><\/p>\n

If you look at it from this angle, national
\nintelligence statistics say that between 2012 and now approximately 70 people
\nhave been purged. This gives us a way to gauge the extent of the injury caused
\nby the Jang Song Thaek incident. <\/span><\/p>\n

Right now, North Korea is still in the
\nprocess of beginning to idolize Kim Jong Un. In North Korean power politics, is
\nthere a more important element than idolization? The relationship with China
\nand Russia, along with the policies related to industry have all been pushed
\nback and delayed. In a totalitarian dictatorship, the leader<\/span>\u2019s authority is not guaranteed without idolization firmly in place.
\nTo accomplish this, the regime must kill many people. To put it another way, as
\nthe regime continues to snatch up important people and examine them, they<\/span>\u2019ll need to kill more and more. As Kim Jong Un continues to secure
\nhis place, we will most likely see a revamp of the North Korean totalitarianism
\nthat occurred from 1960-1980. <\/span><\/p>\n

In all likelihood, about 30-40 years
\nremain. In the road ahead, Kim Jong Un will not likely be able to establish
\npower in the way his father and grandfather did. During the time of Kim Il Sung
\nand Kim Jong Il, the foundation for their absolute dictatorship was already in
\nplace. If Kim Jong Un wishes to command the power and respect that his
\nforebearers did, he still has many, many people left to kill. <\/span><\/p>\n

However, Kim Jong Un will likely never be
\nable to throw away the memory of his father and grandfather. The result of this
\nis that the establishment of his absolute authority rests on his ability to
\ninstill the attitude that, <\/span>\u201cbased on the foundations of
\nthe past, our present and our future will have to fight against one another to
\nform our ultimate path.<\/span>\u201d   <\/span><\/p>\n

Kim Jong Un will falter if he is unable to
\navoid being struck by a <\/span>\u201cstray bullet.<\/span>\u201d For him, the problem will always be that no one has the ability to
\nforecast a <\/span>\u201csudden emergency.<\/span>\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Is Kim Jong Un\u2019s grip on the throne secure? Will he be able to follow in the footsteps of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il by stretching his reign beyond the ten year benchmark?  There are no simple answers to this question. In fact, it\u2019s difficult to get a handle on the state of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":122,"featured_media":31020,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wikipediapreview_detectlinks":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[644],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-analysis-and-opinion"],"yoast_head":"\nPower slipping through Kim Jong Un's fingers? - North Korea News \u2014 Daily NK | Latest DPRK Updates 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dailynk.com\/english\/power-slipping-through-kim-jong-un\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Power slipping through Kim Jong Un's fingers?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Is Kim Jong Un\u2019s grip on the throne secure? Will he be able to follow in the footsteps of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il by stretching his reign beyond the ten year benchmark?  There are no simple answers to this question. 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