{"id":28567,"date":"2014-10-06T23:57:58","date_gmt":"2014-10-06T14:57:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/en.dailynk.com\/en\/?p=28567"},"modified":"2020-01-17T08:18:14","modified_gmt":"2020-01-16T23:18:14","slug":"why-the-rare-visit-from-nks-topran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dailynk.com\/english\/why-the-rare-visit-from-nks-topran\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the Rare Visit from NK\u2019s Top-Ranking Officials?"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>\n<!--\n \/* Font Definitions *\/\n@font-face\n\t{font-family:Cambria;\n\tpanose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;\n\tmso-font-alt:\"Times New Roman\";\n\tmso-font-charset:77;\n\tmso-generic-font-family:roman;\n\tmso-font-format:other;\n\tmso-font-pitch:auto;\n\tmso-font-signature:3 0 0 0 1 0;}\n \/* Style Definitions *\/\np.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal\n\t{mso-style-parent:\"\";\n\tmargin-top:0in;\n\tmargin-right:0in;\n\tmargin-bottom:10.0pt;\n\tmargin-left:0in;\n\tmso-pagination:widow-orphan;\n\tfont-size:12.0pt;\n\tfont-family:\"Times New Roman\";\n\tmso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;\n\tmso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;\n\tmso-fareast-font-family:Cambria;\n\tmso-fareast-theme-font:minor-latin;\n\tmso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;\n\tmso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;\n\tmso-bidi-font-family:\"Times New Roman\";\n\tmso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}\n@page Section1\n\t{size:8.5in 11.0in;\n\tmargin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in;\n\tmso-header-margin:.5in;\n\tmso-footer-margin:.5in;\n\tmso-paper-source:0;}\ndiv.Section1\n\t{page:Section1;}\n--><\/style>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">It\u2019s an earth-shattering moment. The fact that Pyongyang<br \/>\nwould send three of its highest-ranking officials through Incheon International<br \/>\nAirport [in South Korea] to attend the closing ceremony for the Asian Games is<br \/>\nsurely one of the strongest signs of desperation yet in its six-decade history.\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">Amidst rumors surrounding the mysterious absence of leader<br \/>\nKim Jong Un from public sight, what does the abrupt visit from the<br \/>\nthree-member delegation signal? Why did the top three officials all have to<br \/>\nmake this trip together? How much sincerity from the leader do they come with?<br \/>\nIt can\u2019t be unrelated to Kim Jong Un. That would almost be like seeking<br \/>\nasylum. And they probably didn\u2019t come to leave empty-handed. <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">Would they have come with a major negotiating card? What<br \/>\nwould it be? Do they have a hidden agenda? The chain of questions continues on<br \/>\nas such. There are three hypotheses that can be presented on the nature of this<br \/>\ntrip. <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">First, it was a trip to secure autonomy in the North. Think<br \/>\nof a situation in which Kim Jong Un is unable to govern the country. The three<br \/>\nsay they will prepare for post-Kim governance, and meanwhile, ask the South to<br \/>\nact as a buffer for them. If Seoul protects the current senior leadership, they<br \/>\nargue they will get the country back on track and make a transition to being a<br \/>\nsocialist country. <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">Second, it could be a handover to the South. Say North Korea<br \/>\nhas completely lost the means to propel itself forward. It can no longer<br \/>\nsustain itself under the current political system, and they ask for Seoul to<br \/>\nactively engage in the North. So, in effect, it would mean unification. They<br \/>\ncame to propel talks on the specific method and direction of unification. <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">Third, the North wants to position itself as a neutral<br \/>\nautonomous republic. China and Russia are always watching for the right moment<br \/>\nto encroach on North Korea. Pyongyang knows immediate unification is difficult,<br \/>\nbut it cannot hold up its existing system. So, they have extended a hand,<br \/>\nasking Seoul to help make the North the \u201cSwitzerland\u201d of Northeast Asia. <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">These three hypotheses are all simply potential scenarios<br \/>\nthat could have played out. But they all carry one common element: Pyongyang<br \/>\ndoes not want to be dependent on China or Russia. Without help from the South,<br \/>\nit knows it cannot receive any significant support from the U.S. This also<br \/>\nmeans Pyongyang is currently incapable of maintaining ties with other countries<br \/>\non its own. <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">The problem is how ready is the South for any of these needs<br \/>\nfrom the North? The most likely possibility is that Pyongyang wants some kind<br \/>\nof amalgamation of the first and third hypothesis. In the long run, North Korea<br \/>\nwill not be able to survive, if it does not transition to socialism and adopt<br \/>\ncapitalism from there. They are well aware of this. <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">However, North Korea lacks the capability to make that<br \/>\ntransition on its own and is in desperate need of a partner it can trust that<br \/>\nwill throw itself behind the task. Who would that partner be? It seems a<br \/>\nnatural conclusion that rather than the so-called \u201cblood brother\u201d China, the<br \/>\nSouth would be the proper fit. <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">But will one meeting suffice for building trust and mutually<br \/>\nconfirm commitment among the two sides? The North is likely to unfold a<br \/>\nwell-calculated indirect strategy to achieve its goal. It won\u2019t whip out what<br \/>\nit really wants from beginning. Instead, it will try to gauge the South\u2019s<br \/>\ncompetence and underlying intentions through a number of methods, and then make<br \/>\nits decision. <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">If it determines the South cannot be trusted for this<br \/>\n\u201ctrade,\u201d what will the next step be? Does it have other intentions? Could it be<br \/>\nthat the three made this visit together as a safety measure to ensure they make<br \/>\nthe right decision? This offers proof to how substantial the issue at hand is. <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">If they determine those currently in power cannot be<br \/>\nprotected, Pyongyang will turn on Seoul and bolster its aggression to a level<br \/>\nthat could even cause war in some parts of the peninsula. They are more than<br \/>\naware that violence is the only exit and outlet for despair in a country<br \/>\nwithout hope. <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">It makes sense that Seoul would try to accommodate<br \/>\nPyongyang\u2019s needs as much as it can. It\u2019s hard to believe it would be daft<br \/>\nenough to rattle on about the North\u2019s past wrongdoings to these three men and<br \/>\nmake a blunder in this strategic game of chess. But, once the atmosphere turns<br \/>\nsour, the North will believe it is a no-go. <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">What if though they came for none of the three reasons, and<br \/>\nthere\u2019s a fourth: surveillance? [During the Korean War] American general<br \/>\nDouglas MacArthur went the extra mile to convince Pyongyang that Wonsan [on the<br \/>\neast side of the Korean Peninsula] would be the grounds of invasion instead of<br \/>\nIncheon [where it successfully conducted its landing]. The Battle of Incheon<br \/>\nwas a success thanks to the sacrifice of high-ranking officers from the South<br \/>\nKorean side. <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">If, in its final plot to launch war against the South,<br \/>\nPyongyang had sent the three in order to assess Seoul\u2019s North Korea strategy,<br \/>\nwhat would the visit be about? Would it be right to guess the envoys carried a<br \/>\nmeaningless message of lies to deceive and throw the country into confusion,<br \/>\nwhile it waits for the final commitment to wage war against the South? <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">All these hypotheses related to national security should be<br \/>\ncarefully considered. We must be vigilant against groundless sentiments of hope<br \/>\nand also gratuitous thoughts of pessimism. A hard look at reality is what we<br \/>\nneed. By that, I mean we need to treat anything that has even a one percent<br \/>\npossibility of occurring as if it is happening already. &nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">When policymakers face reality, premature and biased<br \/>\ndecisions are filtered out. This is the time to abandon all ideological<br \/>\npreconceptions. What the North truly has in mind will surface soon enough.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\">* Views expressed in Guest Columns do not necessarily<br \/>\nreflect those of Daily NK.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s an earth-shattering moment. The fact that Pyongyang would send three of its highest-ranking officials through Incheon International Airport [in South Korea] to attend the closing ceremony for the Asian Games is surely one of the strongest signs of desperation yet in its six-decade history. Amidst rumors surrounding the mysterious absence of leader Kim Jong [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":122,"featured_media":28569,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[644],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28567","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-analysis-and-opinion"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v28.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why the Rare Visit from NK\u2019s Top-Ranking Officials? - North Korea News \u2014 Daily NK | Latest DPRK Updates 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dailynk.com\/english\/why-the-rare-visit-from-nks-topran\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why the Rare Visit from NK\u2019s Top-Ranking Officials?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It\u2019s an earth-shattering moment. The fact that Pyongyang would send three of its highest-ranking officials through Incheon International Airport [in South Korea] to attend the closing ceremony for the Asian Games is surely one of the strongest signs of desperation yet in its six-decade history. Amidst rumors surrounding the mysterious absence of leader Kim Jong [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.dailynk.com\/english\/why-the-rare-visit-from-nks-topran\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"North Korea News \u2014 Daily NK | Latest DPRK Updates 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-10-06T14:57:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-01-16T23:18:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.dailynk.com\/english\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2014\/10\/DNKF00012384_List.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"120\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"95\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Daily NK\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Daily NK\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.dailynk.com\\\/english\\\/why-the-rare-visit-from-nks-topran\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.dailynk.com\\\/english\\\/why-the-rare-visit-from-nks-topran\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Daily NK\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.dailynk.com\\\/english\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4e0f6adc3d039444440ecc65e9e0aef5\"},\"headline\":\"Why the Rare Visit from NK\u2019s Top-Ranking Officials?\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-10-06T14:57:58+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-01-16T23:18:14+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.dailynk.com\\\/english\\\/why-the-rare-visit-from-nks-topran\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1028,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.dailynk.com\\\/english\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.dailynk.com\\\/english\\\/why-the-rare-visit-from-nks-topran\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.dailynk.com\\\/english\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2014\\\/10\\\/DNKF00012384_List.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Analysis &amp; Opinion\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.dailynk.com\\\/english\\\/why-the-rare-visit-from-nks-topran\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.dailynk.com\\\/english\\\/why-the-rare-visit-from-nks-topran\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.dailynk.com\\\/english\\\/why-the-rare-visit-from-nks-topran\\\/\",\"name\":\"Why the Rare Visit from NK\u2019s Top-Ranking Officials? 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The fact that Pyongyang would send three of its highest-ranking officials through Incheon International Airport [in South Korea] to attend the closing ceremony for the Asian Games is surely one of the strongest signs of desperation yet in its six-decade history. 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