[imText1]Although there was concern in some quarters that destabilizing factors in North Korea might grow uncontrollable following the November 30 redenomination, a prominent expert on South Korean national security believes that since North Korea still possesses material incentives and coercive means of manipulating the people, there won\u2019t be much real threat to the political system in 2010.<\/p>\n
Lee Gi Dong, the chief researcher for the Institute for National Security Strategy told The Daily NK in the latest in a series of expert interviews on North Korea in 2010 that while it is true the redenomination has aroused resentment and discontent among citizens, the likelihood of that developing into full scale rebellion is small. <\/p>\n
That being said, Lee does believe that the North Korean redenomination has reminded citizens of one key fact; \u201cThe state not only fails to serve them, but also actively deprives them of certain things.\u201d <\/p>\n
Indeed, there is little fundamental difference, Lee claims, between popular sentiment during the March of Tribulation, when extreme famine caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, and current feeling. <\/p>\n
According to Lee, the future will also look like the 1990s, \u201cCitizens will develop new means of survival that enable them to evade and bypass state control,\u201d he believes, while \u201cif the authorities strengthen market regulations, it is most likely that the nation will just return to pre-modern ways of bartering.\u201d <\/p>\n
Despite recent moves which have had the opposite effect, Lee nevertheless describes North Korea\u2019s main task for 2010 as \u201cpromoting an atmosphere of succession by improving the people\u2019s livelihoods.\u201d The reason why international relations are also an important issue for the North Korean authorities is because the incentives they are hoping to provide the people with can only be attained via good relations with the South, the U.S. and China. This is closely related to promoting the ideal atmosphere for the successor. <\/p>\n
However, Lee pointed out, time is short; \u201cInter-Korean relations and U.S.-North Korea relations will not improve easily, and even if they did, the process would not be as smooth and quick as the North requires. Thus, the relationship with China is the only economic support North Korea has.\u201d<\/p>\n
However, at least Kim Jong Eun is facing an easier succession than his father, politically. Lee compared the Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong Eun succession process with that of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, noting that Kim Jong Eun is facing a less bumpy ride.<\/p>\n
He explained, \u201cDuring the hereditary power transfer from Kim Il Sung to Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Il had to struggle for power against his step-mother Kim Sung Ae and uncle Kim Young Ju. However, Kim Jong Eun\u2019s succession will be much more stable, as the foundation of the succession system has been established under Kim Jong Il\u2019s absolute authority. <\/p>\n
However, as Lee said, \u201cThe formalizing of the succession and the transfer of real authority are clearly a different matter\u2026 In 2012, there is a high possibility that he will assume a key post as part of the process.\u201d <\/p>\n
In addition, Lee explained the balancing act the successor will be faced with in repaying the support of his benefactors, \u201cThe successor may feel more responsibility to the army and National Defense Commission than to the Party. He has to maintain the military-first ideology and deal with military business first in order to inherit the ideology of his father.\u201d <\/p>\n
Although some think Kim Jong Eun will not succeed his father at all if his father dies in the near future, Lee sees the sudden death or incapacitation of Kim Jong Il as unlikely to change the story of Kim Jong Eun\u2019s succession unduly, \u201cEven if Kim Jong Il dies suddenly,\u201d Lee said, \u201cthe domestic elite will try to stabilize and administer the situation by helping Kim Jong Eun become the next leader as planned.\u201d <\/p>\n
Finally, Lee stressed that although Kim Jong Eun\u2019s succession may well be being conducted with one eye on 2012, North Korea is in no hurry to solve the nuclear issue within the same 2012 timeframe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
[imText1]Although there was concern in some quarters that destabilizing factors in North Korea might grow uncontrollable following the November 30 redenomination, a prominent expert on South Korean national security believes that since North Korea still possesses material incentives and coercive means of manipulating the people, there won\u2019t be much real threat to the political system […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":157,"featured_media":10968,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"wikipediapreview_detectlinks":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[644],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10966","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-analysis-and-opinion"],"yoast_head":"\n