Reports have been streaming in about defectors from the
intellectual class choosing to flee North Korea. For example, a competitor in
the International Mathematics Olympiad hosted at the Hong Kong University of
Science and Technology escaped to the South Korean consulate in Hong Kong to
seek asylum. There has also been news about a general in the Korean People’s
Army and diplomats in China awaiting transfer to a third country. Other reports
have described overseas state employees defecting from Chinese worksites such
as in Shaanxi and Ningbo. These defectors are are part of the upper class,
which means that they did not escape the country because they were hungry. Does
this suggest deeper changes?
Looking at these reports, it is possible to conclude that
the domestic situation in North Korea is unstable. Armed guards deployed along
the Chinese border have even escaped into China and caused incidents there.
There is some talk emerging that the personnel responsible for keeping tabs on
the restaurant workers in China who defected as a group were publicly executed.
There is discussion that state workers dispatched to countries like China and
Malta are defecting and meeting up with one another along their escape routes.
Considering all these developments, one might be tempted to say that something
unusual is happening in North Korea. Observers are asking themselves whether
these signs are indicative of fissures in the regime’s foundations. They are
hopefully pondering if the end is near.
Caution against imprudent forecasting
We need to start by engaging in a careful and balanced
analysis of these recent reports. It is difficult to determine the veracity of
reports from inside sources and defector accounts, so we must approach them
with a discerning eye. We should not flat out declare that news of public
executions or diplomat defectors is untrue. But we do need to recognize that we
are awaiting official verification.
Furthermore, even if all of these reports did turn out to be
true, we need to be extremely careful about interpreting these developments as
signs that the regime is in the verge of collapse. The withering loyalty that
residents feel towards the Kim family is not a recent development. We could go
back to the reign of Kim Jong Un’s father or grandfather to find evidence of
that. It is true that we have recently seen an uptick in the amount of
so-called elite defectors. However, their departure does not spell immediate
doom for the Kim regime.
To truly assess whether the elite defections mark a sea
change in North Korean politics, we need to ask if the defectors, as a group,
could band together to challenge Kim Jong Un, or whether they could influence
the formation of an alternative power structure. In today’s North Korea, it is
difficult to foresee either of these outcomes. The regime remains strong enough
to block and deter any effort to resist or oppose it.
Working hard to understand the situation objectively
I don’t mean to say that unusual or unexpected developments
related to the regime are totally out of the question. Indeed, loyalty towards
the top leadership in Pyongyang is declining and cynicism is growing. Sensing
this, Kim Jong Un is applying fearpolitik to dominate the population. Given
these factors, nobody knows when or if we might see a sudden change. Because
this possibility, however remote, does exist, it is obvious that we need to be
as prepared and informed as possible.
We need to be extremely careful. Especially when it comes to
speculating about the regime’s demise by reading too much into reports about
changes that have occurred in North Korea following the implementation of
international sanctions against North Korea. Misinformed analysis like this can
reach policy makers and influence them to make imprudent decisions. Informed
analysis is always needed, but baseless speculations can be counterproductive.
*Views expressed in Guest Columns do not necessarily reflect those of Daily NK.
