[imText1]Currently, the six party talks underway in China are attempting to make negotiations with North Korea. These negotiations were trying to convince the North to shut down its 5MW nuclear reactor in Yongbyun and allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to reenter the country in return for energy.
U.S. delegate Christopher Hill said that the U.S. was not interested in freezing the nukes but the management of plutonium manufacture and eradication of nukes.
When North Korea initiated its second nuclear threat in October 2002, a nuclear possessing declaration was made, missiles launched and the nation ultimately came to posses a nuclear experiment and 8~10 other nuclear weapons. On the other hand, the U.S. Administration has continued to maintain negotiations and a rigorous policy for the past 4 years, leaving no result but a standstill at the start up line.
Whether considering this situation as ludicrous, the U.S. terminated its oil supplies in 2002 on the basis that North Korea had been secretly manufacturing enriched uranium as well as stopping its KEDO light-water reactor constructions. 4 years down the track, the mention of North Korea’s enriched uranium program has remained unspoken, as Hill’s remarks on the manufacture facilities of plutonium have come true.
If this is the case, why did the U.S. bring up the subject of enriched uranium in 2002 and incite North Korea to create 10 nuclear armaments, only to be unable to discuss the matter 4 years later while promoting negotiations on the disarmament of the North’s nukes?
As long as North Korea’s uranium enriched program is not removed, the disarmament of nuclear weapons is clearly useless. On top of this is the issue of the light-water reactor, South Korea’s promise of 200KW energy, normalization of the U.S. and North Korea relationship, peace to the Korean Peninsula as well as all the requests North Korea has been mentioned as “carrots” for North Korea.
Kim Jong Il dragged the negotiation as desired
Why would something like this even occur?
Regarding the freezing of nukes, the Bush Administration “rightfully” claimed that the Geneva Agreement was fundamentally wrong. Furthermore, though it is reasonable to believe that North Korea can only be pressured by convincing them to disarm its nukes especially considering that North Korea is under an aberrant regime which could sell its nukes to terrorists, it is true that both South Korea and China stood up for North Korea and neutralized the pressure of the U.S. against North Korea.
Amidst current circumstances where a preemptive strike is impossible and pressures against North Korea’s economy is ineffective, if the CVID- “complete, verifiable, irreversible dismantlement”- nuclear disarmament can no longer be achieved through negotiations, the U.S. should analyze now the term “negotiations” differently.
Namely it seems that “negotiations” now means blocking and overturning Kim Jong Il’s expectations. In other words, the six party talks can be understood as a psychological battlefield. No longer is the focus on pressuring North Korea from the outside but internal pressures for surrender.
Psychologically, breaking one’s spirit means defeat as is being helpless towards the opponent’s requests. At this current point in time, the U.S. has regrettably caught itself in this kind of situation. Contrastingly, Kim Jong Il anticipates that the U.S. will forfeit pressurizing the disarmament of nukes, however since this is a promise that has been made under the connotations of verbal speech, North Korea seems to be interpreting the promise literally as speech and are awaiting the U.S. to yield.
A weakness of each party is their confidence and hopes. In particular, the Achilles’ heel of the Kim Jong Il totalitarian regime is that the forecast of Kim Jong Il is incorrect. According to Hannah Arendt, a political scientist, a totalitarian regime is similar to gangsters. This kind of regime is not held intact by constitutionalism but individual power. If Kim Jong Il’s expectations are not delivered, internal pressure will arise from within the core of North Korea’s regime.
In 1998 Kim Jong Il boasted that he would create a strong nation through the Military First politics. Any normal country knows that strengthening the military is an expenditure contrasting to North Korea which claimed it would make a profit from increasing its military. Simply put, one of the reasons nuclear weapons were developed was to extort money from foreign countries and hence Kim Jong Il went around persuading his followers that nukes would generate an income. However, it seems that the U.S. has reached a point where it is now helping Kim Jong Il achieve his prophecy.
Undoubtedly, North Korea will make a promise to disarm its nukes in relations to requests for plutonium. But we must remember that though North Korea may extract all the sweet juices from the outside, it will never surrender its nukes. The reason being, surrender means giving up a great way to earn quick cash that is by extorting money through aggressive force.
Moreover, even if Kim Jong Il is caught not sticking to his bargain, he knows for sure that the U.S. does not hold yet another alternative measures. The last 4 years is pure evidence of this fact. If in the case, Kim Jong Il does fulfill his bargain, he still carries the enriched uranium in his back pocket. Hence, until the nukes are revealed as useless, North Korea will not surrender them, yet the current six party talks maintains that the nukes is the more useful device. Simply put, the combination of a “carrot and stick” has basically failed.
The Bush Administration continues to profess that it will not be manipulated by Kim Jong Il’s nuclear threat. However, as a preemptive strike and a fatal and foreign pressure are impossible, the only way to remain uninfluenced by the threat is to stick to the fundamentals rather than pushing for a quick result.
If the disarmament of all nuclear weapons including enriched uranium is unfeasible, there is no other way but to incite hostile pressure from within North Korea and hence irritate Kim Jong Il. Nonetheless, Kim Jong Il who is most probably thinking that he is close to achieving his goal, will soon be facing yet Kim Jong Il’s “march of suffering” which is a sign for the U.S. to strategically push Kim Jong Il off his cliff.
