In light of an official announcement from
North Korea on September 14th, the likelihood of a long-range rocket being
launched as part of the upcoming 70th anniversary of the founding of the
Workers’ Party of Korea on October 10 has increased.
Korean Central News Agency [KCNA] quoted
the head of North Korea’s national space development program as saying, “The NADA is
pushing forward at a final phase the development of a new earth observation
satellite for weather forecast, etc. positively conducive to the development of
the nation’s economy and made big progress in the research into the
geostationary satellite, a new higher stage in the development of satellite.”
The report added, “The world will clearly
see a series of satellites of Songun [military first policy] Korea soaring into
the sky at the times and locations determined by the WPK Central Committee.”
Experts predict that the North is preparing
to mark the anniversary with a grand-scale event, and the recent reports lend
weight to speculation that the likelihood of a rocket launch as part of a
‘salute’ during that celebration is high. Such a launch would be in clear
violation of the UN mandate and an unequivocal act of provocation. So, then, they say, if the
launch takes place, it would be appropriate to take an equally provocative
measure by resuming the broadcasts from the propaganda loudspeakers.
“North Korea’s primary goal is to continue
developing nuclear missiles, regardless of the state of inter-Korean
relations,” argued Dr. Kim Jin Mu of the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis.
“Even just before the inauguration of Xi Jinping’s administration at the
beginning of 2013, the North proceeded with three nuclear tests. Now, with the
70th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party right around the corner,
North Korea couldn’t care less about its relations with China.”
Kim Tae Woo, head of the former Korea
Institute for National Unification, agreed. “North Korea has never stopped
developing nuclear missiles, whether it was during the so-called Sunshine era or the hardline policy headed by Lee Myung Bak’s administration, predicated on anti-nuclear conditions. This was true even after the September 19
Joint Statement in 2005 following the Six-Party Talks. This pretty picture
that we have painted ourselves imagining that we can get North Korea to stop
nuclear and missile development is completely ridiculous.”
Added Kim, “The truth is that China is not
going to aggressively stop North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile
development, and it’s really quite hard to say that we [South Korea] have enough diplomatic
sway over China-North Korea ties to make China care to a significant degree about this provocation of
Kim Jong Un’s either.”
As far as response measures to a North
Korean long-range rocket launch, Kim asserted, “As always, the ability of
our [South Korea’s] policy to block North Korea’s nuclear missile development
has limits. Therefore, when North Korea carries out acts of provocation, it is
certain that South Korea can shake up the North and make its presence felt if they
respond by resuming the loudspeaker broadcasts at the DMZ or more actively requesting the
joint assistance of China and the U.S.”
Former head of the Sejong Institute, Song Dae Sung, followed up by stating, “If North Korea does in fact carry out continued
provocations, we must not hesitate. We must respond with psychological warfare.
In this type of situation, the government must not delay action due to fears of
public opinion.”
