Over a month has passed since the UN
adopted stronger sanctions against North Korea under UNSCR 2270. To what extent
have these measures, dubbed the strongest ever on Pyongyang, been having an
effect on the North?
Let’s start off by looking at what we can
see in the mainstream press. A North Korean vessel blacklisted by the UN was
recently detained by the Philippine government and later released, while other
ships have been banned from making port entry in China. Some countries have
canceled registration of ships operating under ‘flags of convenience,’ which
had previously enabled North Korean vessels to conceal their origins by registering
in a different country. North Korean restaurants operating overseas have also
seen customer numbers dwindle, in some cases leading to shutdowns.
Screening of cargo going in and out of the
Sino-North Korean border has also seemingly been strengthened. With remittances
from overseas being harder to make, incidents of North Korean individuals
attempting to travel home with cash have also been exposed by local
governments. A North Korean diplomat was recently sent back from their mission
overseas after being caught engaging in illicit activities. All things
considered, stronger restrictions imposed by the international community seem
to be having some degree of tangible effect on Pyongyang’s foreign currency
earning operations.
Notably, it appears that these changes have
not had a significant impact on conditions within the North just yet. There
have been some reports of panic buying and an ensuing “surge in market rice
prices by 500 KPW overnight,” but most media organizations reporting on the
North agree that rice prices remain stable or have only seen a slight increase.
News of fresh sanctions spreading within the North has caused some signs of
anxiety, but this has not led to tangible changes that have affected the
general public.
To sum up, UN measures against the North
are starting to play out one at a time, but at this point, it is difficult to
judge the extent of the consequences it has had on the country.
Effects may later surface
Clearly, it is still premature to assess
the full impact of the sanctions. However, it can be concluded that Pyongyang
is wary of the measures from the fact that it has recently reminded its
citizens of the ‘Arduous March.’ In a March 28 article on political affairs in
the Party’s mouthpiece, the Rodong Sinmun, it asserted, “[The people must]
unite and protect Kim Jong Un even if it means undergoing another Arduous March
of eating grass roots.” An official newspaper putting forth this statement
signals how seriously Pyongyang is taking the current situation.
If the sanctions continue to place
restrictions on North Korea’s foreign operations, trade companies will take a
hit, negatively impacting the ‘loyalty funds’ that flow into Kim Jong Un’s
coffers. It will also threaten the livelihoods of those working at such
companies. With rumors about the sanctions abounding, if the imports from China
that sustain North’s markets start to dip and this triggers even the smallest
degree of panic buying, it could spread like wildfire. The greatest
destabilizing factor is rice prices, especially with the ‘barley hump’ coming
in the near future. By early May, when the 7th Party Congress is set to take
place, the North may be facing a significant number of difficulties.
Still too many variables
This is all under the assumption that sanctions
will actually have a major impact on the North, but caution is warranted before
placing too much weight on such projections. There is still the China variable,
and not knowing whether Beijing will uphold these strong sanctions adds further
complexity to the dynamics within Northeast Asia. Even if the North were to
encounter difficulties, it must also be noted that the current circumstances
are very different from the mid-1990s, when the country experienced the
‘Arduous March.’ At that time, many relied heavily on state rations only to
face starvation. In contrast, North Korean citizens have now become accustomed
to ensuring their own means of survival.
A number of outstanding variables will
influence the extent of the impact that sanctions will have on the North. It
therefore remains premature to draw conclusions, and objective observation of
changes occurring within the North is warranted.
*Views expressed in Guest Columns do not necessarily reflect those of Daily NK.
