There are signs that a fourth North Korean nuclear
test could be in the offing at the country’s main test site in Kilju County,
North Hamkyung Province.
South Korean military intelligence warned today that any
test could even come as early as April 25th, the anniversary of the
founding of the Chosun People’s Army. The period also coincides with U.S.
President Barack Obama’s trip to Seoul for talks with the administration of
President Park Geun Hye.
A South Korean government source told reporters on the 22nd that
the entrance to a tunnel at the Pungye-ri test area appears to have been shielded,
and recent days have seen a high degree of vehicular movement within the site.
According to South Korean intelligence, North Korea used a tunnel
in the west of Pungye-ri for its most recent, February 2013 nuclear test. Since
that time, the excavation of a southerly tunnel at the site appears to have
been completed, and only the political timing of a 4th test remains to be
decided.
This has led to widespread concern that a test could take
place on or around President Obama’s visit to South Korea on April 25th
and 26th. The North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned on
March 30th that a test “could not be ruled out,” and heaped on additional
pressure by cautioning that any future test could take a new form, leading to
concerns that Pyongyang may be planning to detonate an enriched uranium device.
However, the latest moves in North Hamkyung Province may simply indicate a bluff; in
other words, that North Korea is attempting to attract the attention of the
international community and increase its own negotiating leverage at a
sensitive time. The fact that the southern tunnel appears not to have been
filled, the last step before a test can take place, lends weight to this
assertion.
