[imText1]It is an important time for the members of the six party talks to engage North Korea once again to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis. In the midst of the aggravation of the crisis, the ‘View of the US Korean Peninsula Policy’ is to be held, in which government officials, politicians and experts of both the US and South Korea will participate.
From the US side, Jim Leach(Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs in the House), Evans J. R. Revere(Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs in United States Department of State), Joseph E. DeTrani(Special Envoy for the North Korean nuclear weapons), Richard P. Lawless(deputy under secretary of defense for international security affairs in the Asia-Pacific region), J.D. Crouch(Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy), Victor Cha(Asia Director of the National Security Council) are to attend to the conference and Yoo Jae Geon(Chair of National Defense Committee on The National Assembly of the ROK), Park Jin(Assembly man of the Grand National Party), Cho Tae Yong(Head of the Planning Section for the North Korean Nuclear Issue), Yoo Ho Yeol(Director of Institute for North Korea Study in Korea University) are, on the side of South Korea, to attend to the conference .
The conference is expected to address the problem of future of the ROK-US alliance and the North Korean nuclear. The DailyNK met Yoo Ho Yeol, a professor of North Korean studies at Korea University, who will be attendin the conference as one of the experts from South Korea. We heard his insights on the significance of the conference and the possible solution to the North Korean nuclear problem.
– The conference may be more meaningful than many previous ones.
Overall, the development of ROK-US alliance and how the new strategy environment must be changed will be mainly discussed. The nuclear problem does not only affect the Korean peninsula, but it will influence the entire Northeast Asian regional order. We must think what the ROK-US can do in cooperation. Although it is an open conference, I will talk honestly.
– What kind of institution is the CSIS which is one of the co-sponsors of the conference?
It is a civil institution that mainly deals with military and security problem. It has expertise on the matters of Northeast Asia. It has contributed a lot in the problems of the Korean peninsula. William Taylor, presently senior advisor of the CSIS visited North Korea met Kim Il Sung when he was the co-director. He used to host many conference on military and security issues with South Korea and suggested many practical policy suggestions.
North Korea’s Development of Nuclear Weapons through Regime Security Assurance
– What is the Content of your Presentation?
I will present on North Korea’s internal elements to uphold the nuclear crisis. As it is more and more pressured for reform and development, it is trying to holding on to the nuclear to maintain the regime. I believe as the North Korea society faces social changes, outside influence from China, and human rights issues, it is ardently seeking for some security assurance. I will be presenting on such internal matters of North Korea.
– South-North are scheduled to hold high level officials talks. Is there a possibility of improvement of situation through dialogue?
The talks between the related countries will be held. We could expect US-DPRK talks and South-North talks are also possible. However, talks regarding the nuclear problem are rather negative. The North Korean officials will come to the negotiating tables because they are in desperate need of fertilizers but it will be to difficult to conclude any solutions on the nuclear problem. US-DPRK talks could be regarded as simple communication. The two countries will “communicate” but will not take their talks to a level to negotiate on details of the nuclear problem.
– Is return of the six party talks possible at the current moment?
The US is not providing an offer that satisfies North Korea. In fact, it is difficult to provide such an offer. It is now evidently clear that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons. The six party talks will now have to address whether North Korea will dismantle its nuclear weapons and facilities, or hold on to a part of them, and try to prevent the situation taking up a more dangerous level.
– Some predict that North will conduct a nuclear testing
It is possible with Kim Jong Il’s mentality. Since he thinks the testing is not fatal to his regime maintenance, I think possibility of holding a testing is higher. It is rather hesitant at the moment because China is against it.
Possibility of a Nuclear Testing before the 60th Anniversary of the Worker’s Party
– If North Korea pursues nuclear testing, when will it be?
This year is the 60th anniversary of the North Korean Worker’s Party (Oct.10) It will be one of the most significant day for North Korea. It is predicted that North Korea will try reprocessing in August and test in September before the Worker’s Party anniversary.
– Isn’t the nuclear testing crossing the “redline” drawn by the US?
Even if the nuclear testing takes place, there is not much the US can do immediately. Although the crisis will aggravate, it will be difficult to take military measure. Before all it had to do was attack the reprocessing facility, but they do no know where the nuclear weapons are hidden. The US will likely to impose economic sanctions or other forms of pressure. Extraction of nuclear materials is clearly crossing redline. However, nuclear testing when it already possesses nuclear weapons is difficult to be seen as crossing redline.
– Will Kim Jong Il take any special measure?
Recently, on April 10, it is reported that the US broadcaster ABC visited North Korea and made a report in Pyongyang. There is a possibility that they will unprescendently interview Kim Jong Il. Previously, Qaddafi made somewhat “rational man” image to the world through this broadcaster. Kim Jong Il might desire for this kind of image making.
South Korea Too Late to Deal with the North Korean Nuclear Problem
-Is there any other alternative the US is thinking of?
The US will no change its position that North Korea has to return to the six party talks. In order to take a different measurement, there must be a change within North Korea, but there is no such a big problem as of now. The US also has to well conclude with Iraq. There is still some time. There is no reason for the US to give in to North Korea easily.
– Do you think US position is an adequate one?
The main principles of the US are correct. They way they perceive Kim Jong Il or deal with the nuclear problem is also correct. However, would it not be better to be more flexible strategically? For President Bush to directly mention about Kim Jong Il will do no good. While the US openly criticizes Kim Jong Il, it will difficult for North Korea to pursue for further talks with the US. If the situation is perceived to be that the US is unnecessarily stimulating the situation, South Korean government will also be discouraged.
-What should the South Korean government do at this moment?
It missed the timing. It must have thought about the nuclear problem more seriously and cooperated with the US with firmly set principles. If South Korea was more assertive about North Korea’s violation of South-North treaty of denuclearized Korean peninsula or other acts of North Korea which created tension on the peninsula, the US would have better respected the South Korean position. The US chose to respect China over South Korea.
