 Kim Young Hwan spoke with Daily NK at its office in Seoul ahead of April 27’s inter-Korean summit. Image: Daily NK |
Today North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will become the first North Korean leader to set foot in South Korean territory since the Korean War ended 65 years ago. Ahead of the inter-Korean summit, the first such formal event in eleven years, Daily NK spoke with NKnet researcher and North Korean human rights activist Kim Young Hwan about what to expect from today’s historic event.
Daily NK (DNK): Last year the tension between North and South Korea reached crisis level, but within the short space of the past fours months, things have turned around and today will see the first South-North Korea summit in eleven years.
Kim Young Hwan (Kim): I believe that Kim Jong Un has carefully planned everything that is happening right now. If the 6th nuclear test wasn’t successful, he would have planned another test for the end of last year or the beginning of 2018. In such a case, what is unfolding now would have been postponed for a few months. Whatever the case, because Kim Jong Un succeeded in nuclear weapon and ICBM development, there is no reason to put off the regime’s change in tact any longer.
A change in the current state of affairs is incredibly beneficial for North Korea, especially when considering the fact that a North-friendly government is now in power in South Korea. That being said, I think North Korea is enjoying an incredibly easy time in bringing about change to its political situation.
(DNK): Are you saying that you believe North Korea had planned to open its doors to the international community after completing its nuclear tests and ICBM program?
(Kim): Yes, North Korea has been pursuing simultaneous nuclear and economic development from the beginning. Although the international community didn’t choose to take the focus on economic development seriously, in fact, North Korea’s primary goal had always been economic development, and nuclear development was simply a means to that end. North Korea was able to usher in a rapid change to their status by conducting three nuclear tests in only one and a half years.
DNK: There are still a lot of doubts out there regarding North Korea’s earnestness to undergo denuclearization. What is your opinion?
Kim: First, I believe that North Korea’s intention towards beginning the initial steps toward denuclearization demanded by the international community is sincere. However, I believe that the chance that they actually give up their nuclear weapons is so remote that it doesn’t even come close to 1%. For a long time, North Korea has gone through a lot of hardships and sacrifice, focusing all its efforts solely on the development of nuclear capability. The notion that it would simply decide to give all of that up doesn’t make any sense and is even harder to believe.
Even if other countries promise to ‘protect the regime’, and ‘not invade’, North Korea won’t believe them. North Korea will not place its national security in formalities such as peace treaties, a declaration to the end of the war, or a non-aggression pact. Instead, due to a deeply ingrained belief that without nuclear weapons, the country will end up collapsing, I believe there is no chance of North Korea actually undergoing complete denuclearization.
North Korea recently held a plenary meeting where it was announced that they would stop all nuclear and ICBM tests, and dismantle all of their nuclear facilities. Many believe that this is the first step towards denuclearization.
They are agreeing to all of the demands of the international community. They will dismantle their nuclear facilities, stop nuclear tests, close nuclear power and enrichment plants, and open themselves up to inspectors. They are accepting the first step towards denuclearization. However, the international community can only speculate on exactly how many nuclear weapons that North Korea possesses, they can’t possibly know for sure. I believe that on the surface North Korea will agree to all of the demands necessary for the dismantlement of its nuclear program, but in reality, will never give up the nuclear weapons it possesses.
DNK: There is also a strong opinion that complete denuclearization in North Korea is impossible.
Kim: I can’t say for sure whether or not the first stage of denuclearization will be successful. Nonetheless, due to the fact that North Korea has already manufactured nuclear weapons and its unique political system, there are endless ways for them to conceal weapons inside the country. So I am of the conviction that it will be impossible to ensure that North Korea undergoes complete denuclearization.
DNK: Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is one of the three major discussion points for the North-South summit meeting. If there is some sort of agreement made on denuclearization, can the summit meeting be considered a success?
Kim: I don’t really know. I believe that denuclearization is something that actually needs to be worked out between North Korea and the US, so any sort of talks held at the North-South Korea summit regarding this would only be hypothetical.
DNK: Is there a difference between past summits and the upcoming North-South Korean summit?
Kim: The premises themselves are different. In the past, we were dealing with a North Korea who was trying to create favorable conditions in which it could buy time to complete the development of its nuclear weapons. Now we are dealing with a North Korea that is trying to completely turn the tables. It’s different in the sense that in order to shift focus towards economic development, North Korea needs to comprehensively change its global image. In order the accomplish this, the North sorely needs South Korea’s help, so one can infer that North Korea will be very cooperative, coming to the negotiation table with an open m ind.
DNK: If that’s the case, how do you think the discussions towards denuclearization will unfold at the United States – North Korea summit?
Kim: It seems that North Korea will accept the majority of demands made by the United States. Even if North Korea agrees to all of these things, it doesn’t stand to take a huge a loss. If the United States turns North Korea upside down looking for nuclear weapons, it still won’t be able to find all of them. From North Korea’s perspective, whichever direction the negotiations take, it will be beneficial for them. Let’s say that North Korea earnestly agrees to give up 100% of its nuclear weapons, how is the international community supposed to confirm that? They will believe that North Korea has hidden nuclear weapons, ensuring that the country maintains its status as a nuclear power despite possibly not even having them. Whatever direction the negotiations take, North Korea maintains its status as a nuclear power ensuring an advantage that it can’t lose.
Instead of North Korea announcing that they are going to give up nuclear weapons, they are actually announcing that as a nuclear power, they don’t have any need for further nuclear tests.
The audience for North Korea’s plenary session is domestic. After constantly affirming the need for nuclear weapons to the people and the military, can we really believe that Kim Jong Un will publicly announce that he’s giving them up? Despite proclaiming a desire for denuclearization to the international community, news of this won’t be spread to the people. In reality, they aren’t going to give up their nuclear weapons, so telling the public that they plan on doing so would be difficult. North Korea has a critical need to maintain its nuclear weapons.
DNK: What do you think North Korea wants from all of this?
Kim: It’s very clear that their goal is to become a global power, and becoming a global power requires economic development. I believe North Korea will spend the next 20 years building up its economy. In order to do this, it will need nuclear weapons to offset reductions in defense spending and military manpower.
DNK: Are you saying that North Korea’s biggest goal right now is economic development?
Kim: Yes. North Korea’s number one goal is economic development, and in order to accomplish this it will need to free itself of economic sanctions. Even more important than the sanctions, it needs to attract investors from other countries by first mending relations with the United States. It seems that this is the primary goal that North Korea is working towards with the upcoming summit.
DNK: Do you think North Korea is trying to undergo a reformation similar to China?
Kim: It isn’t trying to, it already has, despite being limited by current sanctions. One of the first steps toward any reformation process is undergoing agricultural reform, which has already been well underway, having started 3-4 years ago in North Korea. Looking forward, North Korea will be actively working towards reformation.
