Since the civilian-military joint investigation team announced this morning that the cause of the Cheonan sinking was a North Korean torpedo, attention has turned to North Korea’s next moves threatening South Korea.
Recently, North Korea has been threatening South Korea through the Anti-Imperialist National Democratic Front (ANDF), a supposedly underground South Korean pro-Kim Jong Il regime organization which is in reality led by North Korea, the North Korean Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, the North Korean government agency which is in charge of South Korean operations, and ultimately the National Defense Commission, the highest military apparatus in the state. At the same time, what began as suspicions about North Korean involvement in the Cheonan incident have slowly been emerging as truth.
The North Koreans claim that the results of the Cheonan investigation are a fabrication of the South Korean administration. Since their reactions even appeared a few days before the day the investigation team was scheduled to report the results, North Korea has probably been preparing its counter-measures all along.
Indeed, on the 20th at 10:30 A.M., very soon after the press conference began in South Korea, Chosun Central Broadcast released a statement from the National Defense Commission calling the Cheonan incident investigation results a “fabrication.”
The North Korean Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland also released a statement on the 19th, in which it emphasized, “The Cheonan incident was a commotion planned to break inter-Korean relations,” and warning, “We will answer it with merciless and determined punishment.”
On the same day, ANDF published an article, “Manifesto to the Entire People,” asserting that, “The Lee Myung Bak factions are misleading public opinion by fabricating the Cheonan sinking and insisting that it was caused by North Korea.”
Being conscious of the South Korean opposition parties and the impending June 2nd local elections, ANDF emphasized, “The ruling party of South Korea is scheming foolishly to reverse the situation in local government elections by creating a security crisis.”
However, it is doubtful whether North Korea’s claims are having any effect on the international community when the discovered evidence suggests that the fragments of the collected torpedo correspond to the blueprints of a North Korean torpedo, “CHT-02D,” which is contained in a booklet advertising North Korean weapons for export.
The fact that a multinational team from five countries has investigated the incident in order to guarantee its objectivity has not helped North Korea, either.
A North Korean Studies professor at Korea University, Yoo Ho Yul, referring to the North Korean claim that it will send an investigation team to the South, said, “What North Korea chose was a full frontal breakthrough,” continuing, “There is no reason why the South Korean administration would not accept the North Korean inspections team. However, even if the administration shows exact and clear evidences to them, they will not accept it.”
Park Hyung Jung of the Korea Institute for National Unification said, “This was to waste time while the North promotes conflict within South Korean public opinion.” He explained more, “If the South does not accept the North’s inspection team, it will be a good chance to blame the South. Additionally, the North is trying to advertise to the international community that they are going to make an effort to figure out the truth of the incident.”
North Korea may well unconditionally refute the evidence suggested by the joint investigation team, and then, at the stage of sanctions by the South and the international community, it is likely to put pressure on the South with military threats.
Today’s statement by the North’s National Defense Commission implies its intentions well: “Any trifling incidents in the waters, air or land of our sovereign territory including in the West Sea will be considered the actions of confrontation fanatics and we will cope with that with merciless physical blows and infinite retaliation.”
It also emphasizes the risk of a total war, saying, “This total war will be a sacred war of the nation, people and state to get rid of the base of followers of the rebel factions which created this fabrication and to build a unified great state.”
Therefore, if and when sanctions come to fruition, North Korean provocations across the Northern Limit Line, in the DMZ area or in the West Sea are a predictable result.
One official with South Korean intelligence said, “Ahead of the press conference by the joint investigations team, North Korean coastal patrol ships crossed the NLL three times, so we are watching that closely.”
An anonymous expert with a national policy institute predicted, “If psychological warfare in the DMZ area which the South’s administration has been keeping in mind is resumed, North Korea is likely to attack these broadcasting facilities first.”
The most serious problem is the safety of some 1,000 South Korean people working in the Kaesong Industrial Complex, because there is a danger of their being held hostage if tensions get serious.
Regarding this concern, an official inside the South Korean administration said, “Since the authority to grant passage to and from the Kaesong Complex is in the hands of North Korea, the South has been examining the best way to take our people in the Complex safely out of that zone in the case of North Korea blocking the entrance to Kaesong without notice.”
Of course, there is North Korea’s obvious intention to provoke conflict between South Korean conservatives and progressives in advance of local government elections on June 2nd.
The ANDF, which had been hibernating, giving way to the Korean Asia-Pacific Peace Committee and Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, has reappeared at the front of events.
Sejong Institute researcher Oh Gyeung Seob foresaw, “Since the 1987 presidential election, when leftist figures entered political circles, North Korea has been involved in several kinds of actions to render the South’s election atmosphere beneficial to them. However, it is doubtful that its plans will be effective this time.”
The measures the South Korean administration has planned reportedly include sanctions against North Korean ships passing through the Jeju Strait and halting inter-Korean economic cooperation. They may also move for additional UN sanctions against the North in cooperation with the U.S. and Japan, and if possible China as well.
For its part, North Korea will probably focus on threats against South Korea, considering the limits to its diplomatic power. Therefore, the important key is the Chinese position. If China does not side with anyone, North Korea is likely to concentrate on its brinkmanship strategy of military threats against the South.
